FXUS63 KBIS 111141
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
641 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trend above normal for this weekend, along with
  breezy daytime winds.

- Rain showers, with a few thunderstorms, will be found at times
  this weekend into early next week.

- Active weather pattern continues next week, along with near
  normal temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Limited updates needed at this time. Low clouds starting to
move into southeastern ND. A few showers remain possible with
these clouds although limited reports have been noted so far.
Overall the forecast remains on track, with the main update for
the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Surface low developing in Montana will bring warm and breezy
southerly flow today. High temperatures today in the warmer
areas will be in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s, while cloudy
areas see highs in the 50s and 60s. Some near advisory sustained
winds are possible as a result, although confidence is not high
enough to issue any wind products given a lack of mixing with
cloudy skies and a warm southerly flow. This southerly flow
will also bring increased lower level moisture to central and
especially eastern portions today. This could result in some
shower or drizzle activity in these areas. Meanwhile, dry
conditions look to be found during the day in the west, lowering
afternoon RH values into the 20s and 30s. With the breezier
winds expected in the central and east, the fire weather threat
will remain limited today. This evening through tonight, weak
instability combined with the advancing surface low could bring
some showers and thunderstorms to western and central portions.
Low clouds could continue in the east, perhaps bringing more
chances for light rain, drizzle, or patchy fog. Mild lows
tonight in the 40s are expected. Surface low continues to move
through Sunday, with a cold front advancing behind this low
later in the day Sunday through Sunday night. The result will be
continued mild temperatures for most areas, along with chances
for showers and thunderstorms especially in the northern half of
the state. Severe weather looks limited this weekend given the
lack of shear, stronger instability, and overall lift. However,
SPC has a broad general risk of thunderstorms today and Sunday.
As this surface low moves through Sunday some breezy northwest
winds may also develop. Surface front advances southward then
stalls Sunday night through Monday, while a weak shortwave is
found aloft. This will bring continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Front will cool temperatures slightly
for Monday, with highs forecast in the 40s and 50s north to the
60s south.

This first trough looks to push out of the area Tuesday or
Wednesday. Given the uncertainty on timing some PoPs linger in
the NBM through at least Tuesday, diminishing somewhat on
Wednesday. A warming trend may also be found through at least
Wednesday. NBM has highs peaking in the 60s on Wednesday,
although large temperature spreads indicate perhaps warmer
temperatures are possible. Westerly flow behind the exiting
wave on Wednesday could bring some lower RH values, although
winds look relatively light at this time. Clusters then indicate
a Pacific trough could move into the region later in the week.
This looks to bring cooler temperatures with more chances for
rain and snow showers. Winds with this next trough may also be
breezy later next week, although signals for strong winds are
currently not showing up in the ECMWF EFI values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions will be found across the west and most of central
portions. Lower clouds will push into eastern ND today,
including the KJMS area, bringing MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings.
These lower clouds may push as far west as KBIS today. Some
light rain or drizzle may also be found from these low clouds
today, although confidence was too low to include at this time.
Tonight, low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog, mist, or rain
showers may linger across eastern portions bringing MVFR to IFR
ceilings. This includes the KJMS area. Elsewhere will generally
see VFR conditions, although some shower and thunderstorm
activity may push from west to central in the evening through
the night. Confidence was not high enough to include
precipitation mention at this time for tonight. Breezy southerly
winds will be found for central and eastern sites today. Some
low level wind shower may also be found this morning. Winds
lesson and become westerly tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin