WTPN21 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9N 139.3E TO 15.0N 130.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 138.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOWER-LEVEL WINDS
BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING STARTING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS
OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A POINT SOURCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS LUZON AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS NOTABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPMENT THAN ECMWF
ON THE LATEST RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040300Z.//
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