FXUS65 KTFX 230010 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 609 PM MDT Tue Oct 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today it will be cool, breezy, and sunny. Tomorrow it will warm up and then a shortwave will move through Southwestern Montana bringing light lower elevation rain and mountain snow. On Thursday it will be cool before it warms back up for the weekend. It will be dry Thursday afternoon through at least Sunday afternoon/evening. && .DISCUSSION... This afternoon through Thursday... This afternoon there is upper- level zonal flow over the area. This will bring sunny skies, dry, and cool weather (slightly above seasonal averages) to the area. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will warm temperatures up to well- above seasonal averages with dry conditions during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday morning an upper-level shortwave trough will move through Southwestern Montana bringing lower-elevation rain and mountain snow to Southwestern Montana. On Thursday there will be mostly zonal flow over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana after the shortwave trough moves through Southwestern Montana Thursday morning. This will allow temperatures to cool back down to about seasonal averages on Thursday with dry conditions for North-central and Central Montana and Southwestern Montana after Thursday morning. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 35 - 60% chance for greater than a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation across Southwestern Montana. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 60 - 90% chance of a quarter inch of liquid precipitation or greater in Southern Gallatin, Southeastern Madison, and extreme Eastern Beaverhead Counties. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 50 - 80% chance for an inch of snow or greater across the mountains of Southwestern Montana. Across the higher peaks of Southwestern Montana on Wednesday through Thursday there is a 60% chance for 2 inches of snow or greater. Friday through next Tuesday... On Friday an upper-level ridge begins to move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will begin to warm temperatures above seasonal averages and bring dry weather to the area. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will warm temperatures to well-above seasonal averages with dry conditions. On Sunday cluster analysis shows an upper-level ridge over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will maintain the warm and dry weather for the area. On Monday three of the four clusters (84% of ensemble members) have an upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This scenario would bring cooler temperatures and precipitation to the area. The other cluster (16% of ensemble members) has an upper-level ridge over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This scenario would maintain warm and dry weather for the area on Monday. On next Tuesday cluster analysis shows an upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This would bring cooler temperatures and precipitation chances to the area. -IG && .AVIATION... 23/00Z TAF Period VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours for all TAF sites. The potential for gusty winds will continue across portions of north-central and central Montana over the next few hours before a brief lull overnight followed by an increase in winds particularly at KCTB and KGTF tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, expect light winds across southwest Montana through the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear through the beginning half of the TAF period with some mid-level clouds moving in tomorrow afternoon as a brief weather system moves across southern Montana. -thor Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 31 61 32 54 / 0 10 10 0 CTB 26 54 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 30 61 32 55 / 0 20 50 0 BZN 27 61 27 54 / 0 10 90 10 WYS 21 52 22 42 / 0 10 90 30 DLN 29 59 26 51 / 0 20 80 0 HVR 26 58 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 29 62 29 52 / 0 0 40 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls