FXUS66 KLOX 230939 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 239 AM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...22/730 PM. Warmer conditions will continue across Southwest California through Saturday as high pressure expands over the region. Night through morning low clouds and fog will return to some coastal areas over the next few days. A low pressure trough may bring strong winds to portions of the area during the early to the middle part of next week, along with the potential for light sprinkles at times. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...22/739 PM. ***UPDATE*** Overall quiet conditions for most of Southwest California this evening, aside from locally gusty north winds along the western Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent Santa Ynez Foothills. Local gusts up to 35 mph are occuring there, but will begin to diminish later this evening. As for cloud cover, clear skies are expected for all areas overnight, except for a low chance of patchy fog over the LA Basin late tonight. The most likely scenario will be some haze across this area, but with a low (15%) chance that some low clouds form before sunrise. Otherwise, expect another warm day across the area on Wednesday with inland highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, warmest in the valley locations such as Woodland hills. For the coastal areas, highs in the 60s to mid 70s are expected. Looking ahead, Wednesday night into early Thursday there is a better chance of low clouds developing, especially south of Point Conception. Warm daytime highs are expected through late in the week. ***From Previous Discussion*** Dry and warmer conditions will be expected across most of the area through the remainder of the work week due to expanding upper level high pressure ridge across SoCal. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than today. A little bit stronger offshore gradients are forecast tonight and should keep most of the coastline free from low clouds and fog. Onshore flow and the marine layer will be increasing gradually through the latter half of the week and we should see areas of low clouds becoming more common Wednesday night if not by Thursday along the coast, with the potential for Catalina Eddy development Wednesday night or Thursday. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...22/255 PM. A series of upper level troughs over the PacNW will gradually bring a changing pattern to SoCal. Most of the troughs will be the tail end of the weather features by the time they make it this far to the south, so will mainly be wind generators for our region. The strongest trough feature looks to bring strong winds especially to our mountains by Monday and into Tuesday with the potential for gusts over 50 mph at times. For now forecaster confidence has increased somewhat, with at least 25% of EC ensemble members indicating a potential for hazardous wind gusts early to middle of next week. The latest probability of greater than 50 mph winds shows the areas of Eastern Santa Barbara County at about 10% probability of exceeding 50 mph and in the Antelope Valley at 20% potential. We shall also see the potential for the wind shifting from the NW (onshore strong wind component) with the trough passage Sunday into Monday to offshore from the NNE Tuesday into Wednesday. Stay tuned for later forecasts as we fine tune and see if the ensemble forecasts become more consistent with the potential for strong winds. As for precipitation, as mentioned the lack of moisture will limit any precipitation. There could be periods of sprinkles at best, with the potential for precipitation, even only a few hundredths of an inch, remaining below 15% during the period. && .AVIATION...23/0218Z. At 2318Z, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep at KLAX with a temperature around 25 degrees Celsius. Low to moderate confidence in KSMX and coastal TAFs in LA County. There is a 20-30% chance for IFR to MVFR conds at LA county coastal sites from 10Z to 15Z (best chances for KLGB), and a 10-20% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds at KSMX from 09Z to 16Z. High confidence in TAFs for remaining sites. KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 20% chance for LIFR to MVFR conds from 10Z to 15Z. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 6 kt from 07Z to 15Z. KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF. && .MARINE...23/238 AM. For the Outer Waters (10 NM off the Central Coast south to San Nicolas Island), good confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing (70-80% chance) thru at least late tonight. There is a 30-40% chance that SCA level winds will continue into Thu morning. SCA conds are not expected Thu afternoon through Sat afternoon. SCA level winds are likely (70% chance) Sat night thru Sun night. For the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely (60%) this afternoon into this evening. SCA conds are not expected late tonight through Sun morning. then are likely (70% chance) Sun afternoon into Sun night. For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conds not expected thru the Sat morning. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds Sat afternoon into Sat night. SCA conds are likely (70% chance) Sun afternoon into Sun night. For the inner waters off the Orange and Los Angeles County coasts, SCA conds are not expected thru the week. Locally wind gusts to 20 kt are possible San Pedro channel this and evening, and during the afternoon and evening hours Sat and Sun. Patchy dense fog is possible during the night thru morning hours tonight through Fri. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...JMB/Smith AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...DB/Black SYNOPSIS...JMB/Smith weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox