FXUS66 KLOX 230230 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 730 PM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...22/226 PM. Warmer conditions will continue across the entire region through Wednesday as high pressure expands over the region. Nighttime through morning low clouds and fog will return to some coastal areas over the next few days. A low pressure trough may bring strong winds to portions of SoCal early to the middle of next week, along with a few sprinkles. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/245 PM. Dry and warmer conditions will be expected across most of the area through the remainder of the work week due to expanding upper level high pressure ridge across SoCal. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than today. A little bit stronger offshore gradients are forecast tonight and should keep most of the coastline free from low clouds and fog. Onshore flow and the marine layer will be increasing gradually through the latter half of the week and we should see areas of low clouds becoming more common Wednesday night if not by Thursday along the coast, with the potential for Catalina Eddy development Wednesday night or Thursday. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...22/255 PM. A series of upper level troughs over the PacNW will gradually bring a changing pattern to SoCal. Most of the troughs will be the tail end of the weather features by the time they make it this far to the south, so will mainly be wind generators for our region. The strongest trough feature looks to bring strong winds especially to our mountains by Monday and into Tuesday with the potential for gusts over 50 mph at times. For now forecaster confidence has increased somewhat, with at least 25% of EC ensemble members indicating a potential for hazardous wind gusts early to middle of next week. The latest probability of greater than 50 mph winds shows the areas of Eastern Santa Barbara County at about 10% probability of exceeding 50 mph and in the Antelope Valley at 20% potential. We shall also see the potential for the wind shifting from the NW (onshore strong wind component) with the trough passage Sunday into Monday to offshore from the NNE Tuesday into Wednesday. Stay tuned for later forecasts as we fine tune and see if the ensemble forecasts become more consistent with the potential for strong winds. As for precipitation, as mentioned the lack of moisture will limit any precipitation. There could be periods of sprinkles at best, with the potential for precipitation, even only a few hundredths of an inch, remaining below 15% during the period. && .AVIATION...23/0218Z. At 2318Z, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep at KLAX with a temperature around 25 degrees Celsius. Low to moderate confidence in KSMX and coastal TAFs in LA County. There is a 20-30% chance for IFR to MVFR conds at LA county coastal sites from 10Z to 15Z (best chances for KLGB), and a 10-20% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds at KSMX from 09Z to 16Z. High confidence in TAFs for remaining sites. KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 20% chance for LIFR to MVFR conds from 10Z to 15Z. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 6 kt from 07Z to 15Z. KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF. && .MARINE...22/125 PM. For the Outer Waters (10 SM off the Central Coast south to San Nicolas Island), moderate confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing (60-80% chance) thru at least late Wednesday, with highest confidence in the afternoon thru evening hours today and Wednesday in the northern two zones. There is a low chance (10-20%) of low end Gales from Pt Piedras Blancas to Pt Conception Wednesday afternoon thru late night. There is a 40-60% chance that SCA winds will continue thru late Thursday, with best chances from the Channel Islands to Pt Piedras Blancas. Then, winds will likely drop below SCA level thru Sat afternoon. Then there is a moderate chance for SCA winds over the remainder of the weekend. For the inner waters off the Central Coast, low to moderate confidence in SCA winds in the afternoon thru evening hours each day thru Sunday, with the exception of high confidence in winds and seas remaining well below SCA levels Friday. For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conds not expected thru the rest of the week, then then in the afternoon thru evening hours Saturday and Sunday, there is a 30-60% chance of SCA winds, with higher confidence Sunday. For the inner waters off the Orange and Los Angeles County coasts, SCA conds are not expected thru the week. Locally gusty winds to 20 kt are likely in the San Pedro channel in the afternoon and evening hours thru tomorrow. Patchy dense fog is likely in the late night thru morning hours thus week, with highest chances in the northern waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...JMB AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...JMB weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox