FXUS63 KEAX 232053 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 353 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Roller coaster temperatures ... - Brief warmup tomorrow, 70s/80s - Cooler Fri into weekend, 60s/lower 70s - Warmer next week, upper 70s/low 80s * Showers/storms move through tomorrow evening/overnight - Potential for a few strong to severe, mainly wind/hail - Heaviest rain north, to an inch or more possible * Next chance for decent rain Wed PM into Thur AM && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A quiet and cool day today across much of the area with prior cold frontal passage and surface high influence moving in. While the surface cold front passage was a dry one, lagging mid-level support did spark off a few light showers across northern Missouri today, but like the last round of rain, was largely a tease with hardly measurable amounts in very local areas. The cooler conditions today, mainly in the mid 60s to low 70s, will be short lived though as surface high scoots eastward fairly quickly tonight, returning southerly winds by tomorrow morning, including gusts approaching 30 mph at times. As 850mb temps surge back into the teens deg C, expect highs Thursday to ramp back up into the 80s over western/southern areas of the CWA, with some uncertainty how much of that warm nose is able to work into central Missouri. That will not be the main story though as relatively widespread opportunity for showers/storms also returns later Thursday as a shortwave trough and corresponding surface low move into the region. As surface low approaches the area, progged surface warm front placement across northern Missouri/southern Iowa will provide ample opportunity for some storm organization with 0- 3km and 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 50kts and 40 to 50+ kts respectively. Bulk of convection potential will be around/after 00z as profiles continue to moisten and LLJ aide kicks in. Elevated nature will lend towards primarily a hail threat, but some severe wind potential will remain with dry low levels in addition to organization potential. Northern Missouri will benefit the most from precipitation with said frontal placement, and could yield relatively widespread amounts to around an inch and locally heavier amounts. This would mainly be around/north of Highway 36. Coverage southward will be tied more closely to cold frontal passage overnight, which appears to struggle as you work south of the KC metro area. Expect rainfall amounts south of Highway 36 more in line of a quarter inch or less and little to no strong/severe potential. Within warm sector prior to the evening, a few isolated showers/storms may initiate during the afternoon hours along the nose of low-mid level moisture return and as the warm front lifts, but will tend to lack supportive shear and SBCAPE profiles. Friday and through the weekend, expansive Mid-Upper Plains surface high will dominate weather conditions. Temperatures will be cooler, but still near/above normal in the 60s for most through Saturday before some rebounding as southerly winds begin to return Sunday. Temperatures early week then jump back into upper 70s/low 80s as surface high departs east. Upper level ridging will keep conditions largely quiet into middle of next week. Deterministic synoptic guidance is in fair agreement mid-late week on western trough beginning to kick out and an area of showers/storms developing in response to cold frontal progression and Gulf Moisture return later Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 VFR is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. North- northeast to northeast winds of 10 to 15 kt this afternoon will gradually become easterly by evening, weakening to 5 to 10 kt. Winds will continue to veer to the southeast by Thursday morning, increasing to 10 to 20 kt by 15z, with gusts exceeding 25 kt at times thereafter. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...CMS