FXUS63 KEAX 231739 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1239 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and storms becoming more certain (70%-90%) for Thursday night. Some storms may be strong with a few isolated severe storms possible. Marginally severe hail would be the main threat. - Variable temperatures expected through the forecast period but temperatures will remain at or above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Early this morning, modest cold air advection is filtering into the area in the wake of a cold frontal passage and out ahead of a surface high moving into the central Plains. This surface high will move over the area today making for cooler but pleasant conditions with highs in the mid 60s (north) to mid 70s (south). The surface ridge will remain in control tonight allow for good radiational cooling as lows fall into the 40s. Thursday, the surface ridge moves east and WAA gets underway as a warm front lifts northeastward across the CWA. Temperatures will range from the low 70s to the northeast where the warm front may not make it that far north to the mid to perhaps upper 80s in the southwest which will be in the warm sector most of the day. Modest moisture return over the area Thursday will help set the stage for the potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms Thursday night. Thursday night the warm front will be draped across the northern CWA where MUCAPE values will be 1000-1500 J/Kg with effective shear of 40-50kts. A 50-60kt southwesterly LLJ will increase Thursday night providing strong isentropic ascent along and north of the warm front. This will provide for elevated convection capable of producing marginally severe hail for areas mainly north of I-70. A cold front associated with a upper level shortwave will move quickly through the area Thursday night which will exit the area by Friday morning bringing storms to an end. In the wake of the cold front Friday and out ahead of a deepening surface high over the northern Plains, the pressure gradient will tighten allowing for another round of modest CAA which will keep temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Friday. The bulk of the extended forecast beginning this weekend looks quiet with a warning trend expected. Friday night a surface ridge of high pressure will move into the area providing for good radiational cooling as lows Saturday morning will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. High pressure will remain in control Saturday leading to weak mixing that couple with the cool start to the day will only yield highs near seasonal normal in the 60s. High pressure will shift east of the area Saturday night and WAA will get underway. WAA will continue through Sunday with highs rebounding into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Monday and Tuesday, upper level ridging over the southwestern CONUS will begin to build towards the local area providing height rises. Coupled with strong WAA at the surface, highs will rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 VFR is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. North- northeast to northeast winds of 10 to 15 kt this afternoon will gradually become easterly by evening, weakening to 5 to 10 kt. Winds will continue to veer to the southeast by Thursday morning, increasing to 10 to 20 kt by 15z, with gusts exceeding 25 kt at times thereafter. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...CMS