FXUS63 KEAX 230512
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Up and down temperatures into next weekend, but remaining at or
  above normal.

- Chances (40-70%) for showers and storms increase on Thursday,
  but rainfall amounts of less than half an inch are favored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Upper flow is becoming more zonal this afternoon behind a weakening
wave approaching the Great Lakes. Westerly downslope flow has
translated to another well above normal day with highs in the low to
mid 80s. A potent shortwave advancing across the Northern Plains and
Great Lakes will shunt a cold front through the area tonight.
Northerly winds and CAA knock temperatures down about 10 degrees
from today's highs with temperatures topping out in the mid 60s to
mid 70s.

Southerly low-level flow quickly returns on Thursday ahead of a fast
moving shortwave. A surface low pressure deepening across eastern
Colorado and western Kansas works to tighten the pressure gradient
and gusts of 25-30MPH will be common Thursday afternoon. In
response, temperatures warm back into the mid 70s across central MO
into the mid 80s across western MO and eastern KS. There could a few
showers or storms through the morning Thursday given the WAA regime,
but best chances for precipitation come as the aforementioned
shortwave and associated surface cold front move through the area
Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Low-level moisture increases
ahead of this wave with dewpoints rising into the low to mid 50s by
Thursday afternoon. Instability isn't progged to be overly
robust, but good lift and the increased moisture favors showers
and storms moving across the area during this timeframe.
Unfortunately, light rainfall amounts are favored with the NBM
showing a 40-60% chance for 0.25" of rain and only a 20-40%
chance for at least 0.50".

A stronger and cooler surface ridge builds in behind the cold front
for Friday with 850mb temperatures cooling to 7-9 degrees C. This
surface high remains in control of the area through Saturday before
shifting east on Sunday. Highs will hold in the 60s to low 70s
Friday through the weekend. Ensembles depict a strong western CONUS
trough setting up for Monday with shortwave ridging and
strengthening southwesterly flow across the Plains. This will bump
temperatures back above normal before the trough ejects across the
central US for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with sct high clouds expected
thru 14Z before becmg sct mid-lvl clouds thru 23Z. Aft 23Z
expect clr skies. Winds will be out of the north btn 7-12kts
thru 14Z aft which winds will become NNE at 10-15kts. Aft 23Z
winds will relax becmg lgt and vrb.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73