FXUS65 KBOI 231641 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1041 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2024 .DISCUSSION... A shortwave is moving into the Oregon coast this morning, and will strengthen as it moves across central OR later this afternoon. This shortwave will bring a potent cold front through the area late this afternoon in eastern OR and this evening in southwest ID. Expect moderate precipitation along the cold front with wind gusts up to 40 mph across extreme SE Oregon. Slightly higher wind gusts expected in the Treasure and Magic Valleys this evening with gusts up to 50 mph possible along the cold front, with strongest winds near Mountain Home. Have issued a wind advisory for the southwest Idaho highlands and the Magic and Treasure Valley this evening with the wind gusts associated with the cold front. Precipitation will taper off after midnight. Snow levels range from 7500 ft ahead of the cold front to around 5000 ft behind the cold front, but snow accumulations remain limited to the highest peaks as the precipitation tapers off quickly when the cooler air arrives. Generally 0.10 to 0.25 inch of precipitation expected for the area with this system. Forecast updates coming out shortly. && .AVIATION...VFR through midday. Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and mountain snow this afternoon and evening. Mountains obscured. Snow level 7500ft, lowering to 5000ft this evening.Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt becoming NW 10-20 kt this afternoon and evening with gusts 30-45kt, strongest near KBOI KMUO KTWF KJER this evening. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: generally W-SW 25-35 kt, becoming NW 10-20kt by 06z/Thu. KBOI...VFR today. Cold front 00Z-03Z/Thu will bring MVFR conditions in rain with gusts to 30-45kt. Surface winds variable 5-10kt, becoming NW 10-20kt after 00z/Thu. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...A shortwave trough will move through this afternoon, bringing a cold front with gusty winds, mountain snow, and widespread rain to the region. Snow levels will drop from 7000-8000 feet to 5000-6000 feet by Thursday morning, however snow accumulations will be minimal and melt later Thursday morning. Snow totals will be less than 1-2 inches above 6000 feet while rainfall totals will range from 0.10-0.25 inches of rain by Thursday morning. Boise has about an 80% chance of greater than a tenth of an inch of rain by 10pm MDT. Winds will increase with the frontal passage in the late evening, with sustained speeds anywhere from 20-30 mph with brief gusts around 8-10 pm MDT up to 40-45 mph, mainly in the Magic Valley. Morning lows will be right around or below freezing by Thursday morning, with most valley locations seeing a frost. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees below normal tomorrow after the frontal passage, but then will increase on Friday as the upper level ridge of high pressure builds into the region. LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the West Coast this weekend, bringing temperatures nearly 5-10 degrees above normal with highs near 70 on Saturday in Boise. Unsettled conditions will then return late Sunday, with a long wave trough move through the area on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring much colder temperatures with widespread precipitation. Lower snow levels will bring snow accumulations to the mountains. A weak ridge will briefly build in late Tuesday-Wednesday morning, with good model agreement on another system moving into the region late Wednesday. Model agreement with cluster solutions and deterministic models remains high on the general pattern, with some differences in timing and amplitude of successive troughs. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM MDT this evening IDZ014-015. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT tonight IDZ016-030. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...KA AVIATION.....KA SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....SA