FXUS62 KILM 151955 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 355 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold frontal passage expected late tonight into early Wednesday that may harbor a few stray showers along and after its passage. Reinforcing cold air advection in its wake will maintain below normal temps through the end of the work week. A warming trend is expected this weekend as deep high pressure dominates. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Analyzed surface trough currently over the western Carolinas will move through the area overnight leading to a surge of winds and act as the leading edge of stronger cold air advection. While not technically defined as a cold front, it will act as the leading edge of a deep, well-defined, cold air mass beneath a deepening positively- tilted trough. Mixing and neutral advection this evening will hold temperatures in the 50s for much of the night. Late cold air advection will bring temperatures into the upper 40s inland to around 50 along the coast near sunrise. Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, showers along the leading edge of this trough will form into a broken line across the Carolinas, progressing west to east behind the so-called cold front. Moisture will be limited, but included a 30% PoP given the strong lift aloft. Shallow cloud depths are unlikely to produce meaningful QPF, but a few hundredths are not out of the question along the I-95 corridor where the line will be more uniform. Surface propagation of the line of showers will out- pace the lift aloft and drier air will diminish some of the already limited moisture; meaning showers will weaken as they approach the coast. Best chance of a shower and measurable precip is along the I-95 corridor in NC/SC and west of US-701 in southeastern NC; a few light showers could persist into Wednesday morning along the coast north of Little River Inlet where some additional moisture exists. Cold air advection continues during the morning and afternoon hours with sunshine to the south and the potential for prolonged cloud cover to the north (everywhere should be sunny by early or mid afternoon). Temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60 are expected. Outlier solutions in southeastern NC indicate that clouds associated with a low pressure system developing offshore could persist into the afternoon and high temperatures may be limited to the mid 50s over this small area near US-17 in eastern NC. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Deep mid-upper cold core low will be over eastern NC Wednesday night into early Thursday, with attending surface low just to the east offshore. Any moisture associated with the system is expected to be well northeast of our area Wednesday night and therefore have clear skies and no pops, with just slim chance of a few sprinkles across Pender early in the night. Cold air filters into the area Wednesday night as 850 temps drop below 0C - low temps by Thursday morning between 38F and 40F. Lingering wind will limit radiational cooling and frost chances, but sheltered, traditionally cold spots may drop into the low to mid 30s. Clear and cool Thursday with highs in the low 60s, still well below normal for mid-October (more typical of late Nov-early Dec). Thursday night looks to be the coldest night of the season thus far with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Current forecast has upper 30s for most of the forecast area by Friday morning, with mid 30s in far northern Bladen and Pender counties where patchy frost has been added. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deep ridge remains in place over the eastern U.S. from Friday into early next week. High and dry forecast for our area, with persistent north-northeasterly winds. Warming trend kicks off end of the week, with well below normal temps Friday increasing to near/slightly above normal Monday and Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR this afternoon. Clouds increase late this evening and overnight with an approaching cold front. VFR CIGs developing after midnight could become MVFR for northern terminals during the frontal passage between 06Z-10Z and is may be accompanied by light VFR showers. Cold air advection likely to produce a better chance of restrictions after sunrise with models indicating a layer of cloud cover around 2k-3k feet AGL. Winds increasing after 06Z to around 10-15 knots; increasing again in daytime mixing with gusts up to 20 knots on Wednesday. Extended Outlook...Becoming VFR and remaining windy on Wednesday afternoon. VFR under high pressure through the weekend, with exception of possible low stratus Saturday night/Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tomorrow...An initial surface trough will move offshore tonight with a surge of strong offshore winds and gusts exceeding 25 knots. SCA conditions will have the highest confidence during this initial period with some uncertainty thereafter as the cold front and associated advection moves through in several pieces. SCA gusts are expected to be maintained as the cold front pushes offshore early Wednesday and cold air advection peaks before noon. A brief lull in the gradient will bring gusts to 20-25 knots during the afternoon and conditions will be below SCA thresholds for a short time. However, another shortwave following the upper low will bring a surge of winds and gusts during the early evening Thursday. Marginal SCA gusts associated with this shortwave and additional CAA could persist into late Wednesday night. Waves will be dominated by short period wind waves, peaking around 3-4 feet late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Wednesday Night through Saturday...Gusty northerly winds Wednesday night will be decreasing by Thursday morning as surface low off the NE NC coast moves further away and high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. North-northeast winds prevail across the local waters through the forecast period courtesy of large inland ridge, sustained around 15 kts and gusts to 20 kt each day into the weekend. Seas linger in the 2-4 ft range Wednesday night through Saturday, primarily as NNE wind wave with a ENE swell entering the waters late Friday into Saturday courtesy of exiting low. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...21 MARINE...VAO/21