FOCN45 CWWG 141900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT MONDAY OCTOBER
14 2024.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNING FOR RESOLUTE. SPECIAL AIR QUALITY
STATEMENT FOR FORT LIARD.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
ALBERTA UP THROUGH THE KIVALLIQ INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. UPPER LOWS ARE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BEAUFORT SEA. A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA LOW INTO THE KITIKMEOT.
A DEEP TROUGH IS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
LOW CENTRES.

AT THE SURFACE, THERE ARE REFLECTIONS OF THE UPPER LOW CENTRES OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BEAUFORT SEA. A NORTH-SOUTH RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM A HIGH CENTRE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA UP THROUGH THE
KIVALLIQ AND NORTHERN BAFFIN. A WEAK TROUGH RUNS FROM THE PEACE
REGION SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF ALBERTA.

DISCUSSION...

PRAIRIES...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES. SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA AND SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE WARMTH SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY MID-WEEK.

NWT...A NEW LOW IS FORECAST TO SPIN UP OVER GREAT SLAVE LAKE AREA
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL.

FIRES BURNING NEAR THE YUKON BORDER HAVE BEEN CAUSING SMOKE TO DRIFT
IN AND OUT OF FORT LIARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE AGAIN
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

NUNAVUT...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR RESOLUTE TODAY.
THE TROWAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW. UP TO 10 CM OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING,
AND A SNOWFALL WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TOPPING OUT UNDER 45
KT, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR GUSTS TO 80 KM/H, JUST SHY OF WARNING
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY. WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE OPEN WATERS OF BARROW STRAIT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
SUSTAINED BLIZZARD WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN FOR 6 HOURS; THUS
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

THIS SAME BAND OF SNOW WILL PUSH INTO GRISE FIORD TONIGHT. IN ITS
WAKE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. UP TO 5 CM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

THE SAME SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE KITIKMEOT TODAY.
GUSTS UP TO 80 KM/H ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NWT LOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE KIVALLIQ AND KITIKMEOT REGIONS
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. MOST COMMUNITIES IN THE KIVALLIQ WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION FALL AS RAIN. FURTHER NORTH, PRECIP TYPING WILL LIKELY
BE AN ISSUE FOR THE KITIKMEOT AS WELL AS NAUJAAT, THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RAIN-SNOW
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY, WITH CAMBRIDGE BAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
CANDIDATE. 5 TO 10 CM POSSIBLE FOR MELVILLE PENNISULA AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR ZERO.

END/WIELKI