FXUS65 KBOI 082008
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
208 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Fairly dry SW
flow aloft will continue through the short term period. There is
just enough moisture in this flow to enable convection in the
far SE portion of the CWA today...namely in/near southern Twin
Falls County. Anything that forms over our area should move
east by 6 PM MDT, with gusty winds the primary impact. A weak
shortwave trough will move by to our north Wed, helping to
increase winds and clouds but not bringing any precipitation.
Wind gusts on the peaks of the central ID mtns will reach 25-35
mph in the afternoon, with gusts 20-30 mph in/near Owyhee
County. Otherwise, winds will generally be out of the W to NW at
5-15 mph. Wed will be dry and warm, with highs from the upper
70s to the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Thursday will be
cooler by 5-10 degrees thanks to a weak cold front that will
move through Wed night, but Thu will still be 5-10 degrees above
normal.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...SW flow continues through
the long term period, with above-normal temperatures. A small
closed low is forecast to move onshore near the OR/CA state
line late Sat, but weaken as it moves ENE toward our area.
Models differ on the strength and longevity of this feature,
with just enough of the ensemble members bringing light
precipitation to the area to warrant a low chance (10-25%) PoP
late Tuesday. Temps are expected to remain 10-15 degrees above
normal, which translates into highs in the 70s to near 80 for
lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Areas of smoke near wildfires degrading
visibility in the central Idaho mountains. Virga and light showers
near the ID/NV border will be capable of 30-35 kt gusts this
afternoon. Surface winds: variable around 10 kt or less, except
SW 10-15 kt this afternoon into the early evening across the
higher terrain. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Scattered mid-level clouds through morning. Surface
winds: Variable 5 kt or less through 21Z, then NW around 5 kt,
becoming SE 5-10 kt after 09/03Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP