FXUS65 KBOI 081546
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
946 AM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...Virga is widespread across SW Idaho this morning,
and may develop into convection reaching the ground this
afternoon across the far SE portion of the CWA (southern Twin
Falls County and extreme SE Owyhee County). Gusts from virga and
storms could reach 35 mph. Otherwise expect decreasing clouds
from west to east today. No changes will be made at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Areas of smoke near wildfires degrading
visibility in the central Idaho mountains. Virga and light showers
near the ID/NV border will be capable of 30-35 kt gusts this
afternoon. Surface winds: variable around 10 kt or less, except
SW 10-15 kt this afternoon across the higher terrain. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Scattered mid-level clouds through morning. Surface
winds: SE 4-8 kt, becoming variable around Tue/22Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...Warm and dry again
today except for areas of smoke and haze, with high temps much
like yesterday. Yesterday a weak upper trough off the California
coast pushed limited mid-level moisture northward across the NV
border into Malheur and Owyhee Counties where radar detected a
few light showers and a couple lightning strikes. Today the
moisture will shift east into southern Twin Falls County where
isolated thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon. Wednesday
looks mostly sunny and locally hazy and 1-3 degrees cooler as
500 mb heights lower slightly, but high temps will still be
10-12 degrees above normal. Late Wednesday clouds will spread
eastward into Baker County and then over most of our CWA
Wednesday night as a Pacific upper trough comes inland to our
north. The trough will increase southwest surface winds to 15-30
mph in Harney and Malheur Counties Wednesday afternoon, and the
clouds and winds will keep Wednesday night's low temps mild.
The upper trough will cool Thursday's high temps 5 to 8 degrees
from Wednesday. Clouds will decrease Thursday night and lows
will be about 5 degrees cooler than on Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Beginning Friday, an
upper ridge will amplify over the Intermountain West ahead of
an approaching Pacific trough. As a result, warm south-southwest
flow will develop over the region and raise high temperatures
to around 10 degrees above normal both Fri/Sat. The trough is
forecast to weaken while it tracks east through northern
California/Nevada by late Saturday and Sunday. This trough will
lack moisture and keep shower chances around 10% or less for the
forecast area. Thereafter, benign and warm southerly flow will
return for Monday. Models hint at the arrival of a cold front
sometime Tue/Wed which would initiate breezy winds, cooler
temperatures, and an increased chance of showers.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH