WTNT42 KNHC 022045
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

This afternoon, Kirk has the appearance of an intensifying
hurricane. While the eye still remains obscured on visible satellite
imagery, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 1604 UTC showed the
inner-core continues to improve, with a notable cyan ring on the 37
GHz channel. This signal is often a harbinger of more substantial
intensification. While the subjective Dvorak estimates remain
unchanged from this morning, the improvement of the storm structure
on microwave imagery suggests intensification has continued, and the
initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane has maintained its motion throughout the day, still
northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is not a lot of new information to
report about the track philosophy, with Kirk expected to round the
western edge of the subtropical ridge that has been its primary
steering mechanism over the last few days. This ridge is forecast to
become eroded by a deep-layer trough approaching from the west, and
Kirk will ultimately track in between these two features, beginning
to accelerate as the tropical cyclone recurves into the higher
latitudes. The track guidance remains in good agreement with
lower-than-average spread on the forecast track, and the NHC track
is very similar to the prior advisory and is quite close to both the
ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aid track solutions.

All systems appear go for Kirk to intensify significantly over the
next couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the
hurricane intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 h, in good
agreement with the hurricane-regional model guidance. Thereafter,
inner-core fluctuations plus increasing southwesterly shear from the
upper-level trough to its west is expected to cause gradual
weakening, as  shown in the NHC forecast after that time. Kirk is
also expected to continue growing in size through the forecast
period. By the end of the forecast, Kirk should begin extratropical
transition in the high-latitudes, likely to be completed just
beyond day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.9N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.9N  45.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 21.1N  46.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 22.4N  48.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 23.8N  49.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 28.5N  50.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 35.1N  47.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 42.5N  38.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin