WTPZ31 KNHC 021435
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 95.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 95.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and that general
motion should continue through Friday and Friday night.  On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast
of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday or
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast,
and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven