WTNT22 KNHC 011451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  39.2W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE  70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  39.2W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  38.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N  40.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N  42.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N  43.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N  45.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N  46.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.6N  48.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 150SW 170NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN