ABPZ20 KNHC 011749
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96):
Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have
become better organized since yesterday.  If current trends
continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression
this afternoon, and watches or warnings could be required for a
portion of the southeastern coast of Mexico.  Additionally, heavy
rain is likely along portions of the coast of southern Mexico and
northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are
generally conducive for development, the proximity of this system
to the low pressure area near the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96) could
limit development chances during the first couple of days. Later
this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly west-
northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, with development
chances increasing by this weekend. This system is expected to
contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by
substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake