ABPZ20 KNHC 011151
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco with disorganized thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within a few days. The
disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore of the
coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this
weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial
rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in
organization during the past several hours. Although the system
does not yet appear to have a well-defined surface circulation,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two. This system is forecast to meander near
southern coast of Mexico, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible along portions of the coast of southern Mexico and
northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake