ABPZ20 KNHC 010532
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development after that
time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of
the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just
offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin
moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by
this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial
rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in organization
during the past several hours. Although the system does not yet
appear to have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of days
before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of
the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen