FXUS63 KEAX 300908 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures again today. - A cold front moves through the region tonight, bringing much cooler and drier air into the area for tomorrow. - Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible tomorrow afternoon. - Temperatures begin to rebound on Wednesday, with well above normal temperatures returning on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Warm and dry weather continues across the region as we remain underneath mid level ridging sandwiched between a closed mid level low over southern Appalachia and an approaching mid/upper trough moving into the Northern High Plains. Another warm day is expected today, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s across the region under generally clear skies with light and variable winds. By 7 pm tonight, a mid level low moves into northern Manitoba with the associated trough extending southward into the Midwest. This will send a cold front through the region from northwest to southeast, with models generally agreeing on entry into far NW Missouri by around 8 pm tonight, through the KC metro by around 1 am, and completely through the CWA by around 4 am tomorrow morning. A much cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region behind the front, with surface high pressure building in over the area tomorrow afternoon. Afternoon highs for tomorrow afternoon should range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s with dew points in the 30s and northerly winds on the order of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. The pairing of low RH, breezy northerly winds, and pre existing drought conditions could yield elevated fire weather conditions for Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures begin to rebound on Wednesday, and increase even more on Thursday into the mid to upper 80s, as mid level flow becomes more zonal with higher 500 mb heights and large positive 850 mb temperature anomalies overspreading the region from the west southwest. Model guidance begins to differ quite a bit in regards to temperatures as we head into Friday and next weekend. It is possible that we get another cold front to move through the region in association with troughing over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, while it is also possible that the front and the significantly cooler air hangs up just to our north. The most recent NBM guidance shows the 25th and 75th percentiles for high temperatures at MCI for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at 72/81, 72/84, and 74/83, respectively. Guidance continues to be consistent in keeping our region dry through at least the end of next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 VFR conditions are likely to persist through the period under generally clear skies, although some patchy fog may be possible around sunrise this morning. Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming generally southerly by late Monday morning and remaining light (below 10 knots). && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW