ACUS02 KWNS 290455
SWODY2
SPC AC 290453

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening, positively-tilted upper trough will continue eastward
in the central/southern Appalachians on Monday. On the southern
flank of this trough, mid-level winds will remain modestly enhanced
from Georgia into parts of the eastern Carolinas. Thermodynamic
profiles across the region suggest convection should remain rather
shallow due to warmer temperatures at mid/upper levels. This will
particularly be the case with northern/western extent closer to the
remnant upper level circulation. A few deeper updrafts are possible
near the eastern coast of North Carolina. Despite adequate shear,
weak lapse rates aloft and minimal forcing for ascent will limit
potential for severe storms.

Across the Florida Peninsula, a moist airmass will remain in place.
Daytime heating and ascent along the sea breeze boundary will
promote isolated to scattered storm development during the
afternoon. Weak shear will limit severe potential, however.

Though limited, mid-level moisture within the upper-level ridge will
allow isolated thunderstorms to develop within the higher terrain in
the Four Corners vicinity. Slightly greater coverage may be realized
in central Colorado where PWAT values are forecast to be higher.

..Wendt.. 09/29/2024

$$