FXHW60 PHFO 280204 AAA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
404 PM HST Fri Sep 27 2024

.UPDATE...
Update to aviation section.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Moderate trade winds will prevail through the weekend and much of
next week. Trade wind showers will favor windward and mountain
areas in the overnight to early morning hours, especially through
tomorrow morning as a weak disturbance passes over the state. A
slightly drier trade wind pattern is expected Sunday onward.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 328 PM HST Fri Sep 27 2024/

As of 3 PM HST this afternoon, radar and satellite were showing
low clouds and isolated to scattered showers continuing to move
into windward and mauka areas on the trades, with a few showers
sneaking around island terrain and into leeward areas at times.
This activity will continue into this evening as a low level
trough moves across the state from the east along with some
moisture embedded in the moderate trade wind flow. As is typical
in a trade wind pattern, an uptick in shower activity can be
expected overnight into the early morning hours, further enhancing
these showers. Overall, these showers are expected to be brief
and bring benign rainfall amounts through tomorrow morning. After
the low level trough currently impacting the state moves westward
and clears out of the area, drier air will filter in on Sunday and
reduce the chance of showers.

Heading into next week, the mid level ridge overhead will retreat
further away to the NE as a deep mid/upper level trough sweeps
into the north central Pacific (and stays far north of Hawaii).
At the surface, a ridge of high pressure well to the north of the
state will be disturbed by a series of lows and fronts of varying
magnitudes marching across the far northern Pacific, generally
maintaining moderate trades across the main Hawaiian Islands
through much of next week. One of these fronts may bring a slight
decline in trade wind speeds Sunday and Monday. For the rest of the week,
batches of low level moisture will filter across the state on the
moderate trades and bring brief upticks in windward and mauka
showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trade winds veering slightly east-southeast into
Saturday. VFR conditions prevail with brief MVFR cig/vis
occurring within showers for windward slopes and waters, with the
possibility AIRMET Sierra could be issued for tempo mountain
obscruations along any of the windward slopes if the clouds and
showers become more extensive late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to fresh trade winds will prevail through at least early
next week as weak surface high pressure holds north of the island
chain. Winds will be near the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level at
times around the Big Island and Maui through tomorrow, but an SCA
is not anticipated. Winds may decline slightly Sunday and Monday
as the surface ridge to the north is weakened, with a slight
increase possible Tuesday or Wednesday.

The current small north-northwest swell will decline through
tonight. A small, medium period north-northwest swell will build
on Saturday and produce north shore surf near September average
Saturday night and early Sunday. A small, medium period northwest
will arrive on Tuesday, shift out of the north Wednesday and
Thursday, and hold into Friday.

The current mix of small, long period south-southwest swell and
short period southwest swell will decline tonight and Saturday.
Another pulse of inconsistent southwest swell originating from
the Tasman Sea will push south shore surf to near seasonal
average late Sunday and Monday. A more consistent south-southwest
swell is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

East shore surf will remain well below normal through the week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION/UPDATE...Foster
MARINE...Wroe