FXUS62 KMHX 282233 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 633 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today will remain mostly dry outside of scattered showers along the coast overnight tonight. Unsettled conditions remain in the forecast through Tuesday as the remnants of Helene move eastward. The pattern enters a lull by mid-week with a drier air mass overspreading ENC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 630 PM Saturday...Satellite imagery and radar indicate that moisture is surging northeast along and just off the southeast coast well ahead of the remnants of Helene which is meandering over Kentucky and Tennessee today, while high pressure remains over the Atlantic. The combination of the low to our east and this high offshore will funnel this moisture across eastern NC tonight into Sunday. A mid level shortwave rotating around mid level low pressure to our west will combine with the streaming moisture, producing scattered showers and possible thunderstorms later this evening and overnight. The best rain chances will be primarily east of Highway 17, with the best thunder chances over the coastal communities and and the coastal waters. Non zero waterspout chance at the leading edge of these showers, but after midnight the environment becomes less supportive of rotation. Chance of impactful fog mainly inland again early morning Sunday, with lowest visibilities expected along and west of Highway 17. Lows tonight in the mid 60s inland, and near 70 for beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday...The upper low and remnants of Helene will begin its eastward trek on Sunday with a push from a northern stream wave over southern Canada. Closer to us, a shortwave moving through along a stalled boundary in the near term will spawn a weak low to our northeast Sunday. This will result in slight chances of rain for eastern portions of the CWA in the morning hours, with a brief reprieve late morning/early afternoon before daytime convection kicks up along and ahead of a sea breeze. While most of the convection Sunday is expected to remain capped, a few thunderstorms are possible, primarily east of hwy 17. Highs Sunday in the mid 80s inland, low 80s for beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 4 AM Saturday... Sunday night - Tuesday...The upper low and remnants of Helene will continue its eastward trek with a push from a northern stream wave over southern Canada. The movement of this trough will support daily PoPs (slight chance to chance) through Tuesday. At this time, the base of the upper trough and attendant surface cold front will cross Eastern NC some time late Tuesday, which will present the next best opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temps near normal for late Sept. into early Oct. Wednesday - Friday...Dry, northwesterly flow will set in behind the departure of Helene's remnants. A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned northern stream wave will then move across Eastern NC on Wednesday with strong high pressure building south over the area from the Mid-Atlantic states, drawing in a cooler and drier air mass through late week. Temps again near normal for early Oct. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 630 PM Saturday...VFR conditions through this evening , with another round of locally dense fog and low stratus are expected for early tomorrow morning. Confidence is increasing in the fog, and IFR VIS has been introduced to the TAFs. LIFR conditions are possible, particularly between 9-12Z Sunday. Overnight there will also be showers and thunderstorms which are expected to occur along the coast and east of the TAF sites, but coverage should remain isolated to nonexistent inland for TAF sites. Low stratus and fog will lift by 15Z leading to another day of primarily VFR conditions outside of any scattered showers or thunderstorms that develop with the help of daytime heating. Winds will generally be southwesterly around 5-10 kt today and become easterly at less than 5 kt by tomorrow. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 3:10 AM Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the long term aviation forecast. There will be low chances for precipitation (15-30%) Sunday through Tuesday which may briefly result in sub-VFR conditions. A drier air mass will build across Eastern NC by mid-week with predominantly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... As of 630 PM Saturday...Current obs indicate 4-5 ft seas at 8-11 seconds as Marine conditions continue to improve tonight with southerly winds forecast to diminish from 10-20 kt early this evening to 5-10 kt overnight. Winds will become more easterly at 5-10 kts tomorrow. 4-5 ft seas this evening will subside to 2-3 ft Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be impacting coastal marine zones south of Oregon Inlet tonight into early tomorrow morning, with a low end threat of waterspouts before midnight tonight. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Saturday...Marine conditions will continue improving Sunday night and stay below SCA levels through much of the long term as weak high pressure remains over the NC waters through Tuesday. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft by Sunday, 2-3 ft on Monday and Tuesday, then gradually build back to 2-5 ft on Wednesday. Winds will remain around 10 kt or less through Tuesday, then shift northerly at 10-15 knots by Wednesday as low pressure exits off the Delmarva Peninsula with high pressure building south over the waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/OJC/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/JME/RJ MARINE...DAG/JME/RJ