FXUS62 KMHX 281941 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 341 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today will remain mostly dry outside of scattered showers along the coast overnight tonight. Unsettled conditions remain in the forecast through Tuesday as the remnants of Helene move eastward. The pattern enters a lull by mid-week with a drier air mass overspreading ENC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Saturday...The remnants of Helene will meander over Kentucky and Tennessee today. Closer to home, a stalled boundary is draped across ENC and a high remains offshore to our east. The combination of a low to our east and this high offshore will be continue funneling moisture towards us, as subsidence and drier conditions this afternoon give way to higher PWATs increasing Tds tonight. A shortwave will be moving through along this stream of moisture tonight, bringing rain chances primarily east of hwy 17, with thunder chances for coastal communities and and coastal waters. Non zero waterspout chance at the leading edge of these showers, but after midnight the environment becomes unsupportive of rotation. Chance of impactful fog again early morning Sunday, with lowest visibilities expected along and west of hwy 17. Lows tonight in the mid 60s inland, near 70 for beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday...The upper low and remnants of Helene will begin its eastward trek on Sunday with a push from a northern stream wave over southern Canada. Closer to us, a shortwave moving through along a stalled boundary in the near term will spawn a weak low to our northeast Sunday. This will result in slight chances of rain for eastern portions of the CWA in the morning hours, with a brief reprieve late morning/early afternoon before daytime convection kicks up along and ahead of a sea breeze. While most of the convection Sunday is expected to remain capped, a few thunderstorms are possible, primarily east of hwy 17. Highs Sunday in the mid 80s inland, low 80s for beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 4 AM Saturday... Sunday night - Tuesday...The upper low and remnants of Helene will continue its eastward trek with a push from a northern stream wave over southern Canada. The movement of this trough will support daily PoPs (slight chance to chance) through Tuesday. At this time, the base of the upper trough and attendant surface cold front will cross Eastern NC some time late Tuesday, which will present the next best opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temps near normal for late Sept. into early Oct. Wednesday - Friday...Dry, northwesterly flow will set in behind the departure of Helene's remnants. A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned northern stream wave will then move across Eastern NC on Wednesday with strong high pressure building south over the area from the Mid-Atlantic states, drawing in a cooler and drier air mass through late week. Temps again near normal for early Oct. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 PM Saturday...VFR conditions today into tonight, with another round of fog and low stratus are on the table for early tomorrow morning. Confidence is increasing in the fog, and IFR VIS has been introduced to the TAFs. LIFR conditions are possible, particularly between 9-12Z Sunday. Overnight there will also be showers and thunderstorms trekking along the coast, but coverage should remain isolated to nonexistent inland for TAF sites. Low stratus will break up by 14Z leading to another day of primarily VFR conditions outside of any showers or thunderstorms that develop with the help of daytime heating. Winds will generally be southwesterly around 5-10 kt today and become easterly at less than 5 kt by tomorrow. LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/... As of 3:10 AM Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the long term aviation forecast. There will be low chances for precipitation (15-30%) Sunday through Tuesday which may briefly result in sub-VFR conditions. A drier air mass will build across Eastern NC by mid-week with predominantly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Current obs show 4-6 ft seas at 8-11 seconds. Marine conditions will continue to improve today with all coastal zones forecast to drop below 6 ft by this evening. Winds will generally be around 10 knots out of the southwest. before becoming more easterly and 5-10 kts tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be impacting coastal marine zones south of Oregon Inlet tonight into early tomorrow morning, with a low end threat of waterspouts before midnight tonight. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Tue/... As of 315 AM Saturday...Marine conditions will continue improving Sunday night and stay below SCA levels through much of the long term as weak high pressure remains over the NC waters through Tuesday. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft by Sunday, 2-3 ft on Monday and Tuesday, then gradually build back to 2-5 ft on Wednesday. Winds will remain around 10 kt or less through Tuesday, then shift northerly at 10-15 knots by Wednesday as low pressure exits off the Delmarva Peninsula with high pressure building south over the waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/RJ MARINE...DAG/RJ