FXUS62 KMHX 280758 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 358 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today will remain mostly dry outside of scattered showers along the coast overnight tonight. Unsettled conditions remain in the forecast through Tuesday as the remnants of Helene move eastward. The pattern enters a lull by mid-week with a drier air mass overspreading ENC. && .NEAR TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 3:30 AM Saturday...The remnants of Helene will meander over Kentucky and Tennessee today. Closer to home, a cold front attached to a parent low in Delaware and New Jersey will be draped across ENC but won't budge much until late tonight. Today should be quite beautiful with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid-80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3:30 AM Saturday...The aforementioned cold front will creep eastward late tonight and support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The forecast has trended wetter during this period and while activity should be limited to mainly the immediate coast, a stray shower or thunderstorm could blossom slightly farther inland. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that the majority of overnight activity will be east of Highway 17 where QPF has increased to 0.25-0.50". Lows will dip to the upper 60s along the coastal plain and low 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 4 AM Saturday... Sunday - Tuesday...The upper low and remnants of Helene will begin its eastward trek on Sunday with a push from a northern stream wave over southern Canada. The movement of this trough will support daily PoPs (slight chance to chance) through Tuesday. At this time, the base of the upper trough and attendant surface cold front will cross Eastern NC some time late Tuesday, which will present the next best opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temps near normal for late Sept. into early Oct. Wednesday - Friday...Dry, northwesterly flow will set in behind the departure of Helene's remnants. A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned northern stream wave will then move across Eastern NC on Wednesday with strong high pressure building south over the area from the Mid-Atlantic states, drawing in a cooler and drier air mass through late week. Temps again near normal for early Oct. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 1:30 AM Saturday...Skies have been gradually clearing and winds have been decreasing over the past few hours. These conditions, paired with the saturated soils from today's rainfall, set the stage for fog development early this morning. The inner coastal plain is the area most likely to see fog development but patchy fog can't be ruled out across the area. PGV, OAJ, and ISO have a mention of MVFR VIS between 9-13Z, but decreases to IFR are certainly still on the table. Flight cats should return to VFR by 13Z and persist through the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be southwesterly around 5-10 kt. LONG TERM /Sat through Tue/... As of 3:10 AM Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the long term aviation forecast. There will be low chances for precipitation (15-30%) Sunday through Tuesday which may briefly result in sub-VFR conditions. A drier air mass will build across Eastern NC by mid-week with predominantly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... As of 3 AM Saturday...Current obs show 5-7 ft seas at 10-11 seconds. Marine conditions will continue to improve today with all coastal zones forecast to drop below 6 ft by this evening. Winds will generally be around 10 knots out of the southwest. LONG TERM /Sat through Tue/... As of 315 AM Saturday...Marine conditions will begin improving Sunday and stay below SCA levels through much of the long term as weak high pressure remains over the NC waters through Tuesday. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft by Sunday, 2-3 ft on Monday and Tuesday, then gradually build back to 2-5 ft on Wednesday. Winds will remain around 10 kt or less through Tuesday, then shift northerly at 10-15 knots by Wednesday as low pressure exits off the Delmarva Peninsula with high pressure building south over the waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...OJC/DAG MARINE...OJC/DAG