FXUS62 KMHX 280212 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1012 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... TC Helene lifts towards the Midwest today. A slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms in the form of scattered tornadoes today are possible along an outer band of Helene, and then upper low pressure may bring some occasional showers late weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 1015 PM Fri...Bulk of shower activity is now offshore although a few stray showers continue to scrape the coast and soundside waters. WV shows a large area of dry air continuing to get pulled into the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic, and any precipitation should be confined offshore by midnight. Skies steadily clear tonight although upper level cirri will linger. Winds quickly collapse overnight, and some fog and low stratus is possible overnight. Reliable statistical guidance has not had a consistent signal over the past several runs, and defaulted to a more cautious forecast tilted towards the HREF mean, favoring the inner coastal plain for lower visibilities. Quiet night expected otherwise, with lows in the upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 4 PM Friday...ENC will remain under the western periphery of the upper ridge off the east coast. The remnants of Helene will meander over Kentucky as it gets entrained into the broader cutoff low with its dry slot overspreading the eastern US. These features will work to keep Saturday precip free, warm, and muggy (although substantially less humid compared to today). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 4 PM Friday... Sunday - Tuesday...The upper low and remnants of Helene will begin its eastward trek on Sunday with a push from a northern stream wave over southern Canada. The movement of this trough will support daily PoPs (slight chance to chance) through Tuesday. At this time, the base of the upper trough and attendant surface cold front will cross ENC some time on Tuesday, which will present the next best opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday - Friday...Dry, northwesterly flow will set in behind the departure of Helene's remnants. A cold front associated with the aforementioned northern stream wave will then move across ENC on Wednesday and draw in a cooler and drier air mass. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 720 PM Friday...Mix of VFR and MVFR in place this evening as band of widely scattered showers moves off the coast of the Outer Banks as the remnants of Helene occlude over the Ohio Valley. Forecast tonight is of lower than average confidence. Skies are expected to gradually clear tonight and winds quickly fall calm, and with today's rainfall - especially across the coastal plain - it seems like fog would be a reasonable forecast. The reliable GLAMP has had poor run to run consistency, however, and is only lukewarm on the prospect. HREF mean vis and cigs show a more reasonable picture based on anticipated conditions, and trended TAFs more in its direction. Still, given the uncertainty, did not show explicit IFR conditions early Sat AM. If any IFR does form in the morning, it will quickly give way to VFR for the remainder of the day with southwesterly winds generally 5-10 kt. LONG TERM /Sat through Tue/... As of 4 AM Thu...As of 3:30 AM Friday...A 15-30% chance of scattered showers Sunday- Tuesday will present multiple opportunities for sub-VFR conditions. A drier air mass will move in mid-week and predominantly VFR flight cats should persist thereafter. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... As of 4 PM Friday...Winds are currently gusting to 20-30 kt from the S/SE, and will be slowly decreasing through this evening as the gradient lets up behind the pseudo warm front moving through the region. Infrequent gusts of 35 kts are possible south of C Lookout over the next couple of hours. A band of heavy rain currently just west of the Pamlico Sound could produce waterspouts and strong convective gusts today moving SW to NE. Winds diminish rapidly this evening as they turn SW with speeds of 5-15 kt by midnight. Seas will only slowly subside, and SCA's for the coastal waters will remain due to the continued high seas. LONG TERM /Sat through Tue/... As of 4 AM Friday...Marine conditions will be improving through the long term. Seas are forecast to be 4-7 feet to begin Saturday but should drop below 6 ft by Saturday night. Seas will continue to decrease to 2-3 ft by Sunday evening. Seas will gradually build back to 2-5 ft on Tuesday. Winds will remain around 10 kt through the period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 4 AM Fri...Another round of coastal flooding is expected for coastal areas S of Oregon Inlet due to heightened water levels, increased windspeeds, and strong wave action from Helene. This flood event is not expected to be as significant as the most recent flood event we just got out of as astronomical tide cycle is lower, relatively weaker winds, and less rainfall. As such, have gone with widespread inundation values of up to one foot. The greatest impacts around the time of high tide which will be around 5 PM. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ195-196-199- 204-205. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...MS/OJC MARINE...OJC/RJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX