FXUS62 KMHX 191934 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 334 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough will gradually push offshore tonight While at the same time high pressure will ridge southwards across the Carolinas and remain entrenched across the Mid-Atlantic through this weekend allowing for benign conditions across the area. Next potential frontal system doesn't near ENC until at least midweek next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Thurs...Fairly active afternoon across ENC with several boundaries noted. A weak seabreeze has begun to move inland while outflow boundaries continue to near the coast associated with ongoing shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Much of the ongoing shower activity is associated with a southward moving 700mb front which is currently located near the Crystal Coast. Expect both 700 mb front and precipitation to continue to gradually move S'wards as the afternoon wears on. Latest mesoanalysis shows 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE with PWATs sitting around 1.8 inches while deep moist convergence is noted to the south of Hwy 264. This combined with the weak forcing from the upper level front will result in a rather active radar picture through the rest of the afternoon with widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity spread across much of the region. Where seabreeze and outflow boundaries interact, could see some localized enhanced surface convergence and heavier precip rates and latest guidance still suggests a low end localized flooding risk mainly along the Crystal Coast where moist antecedant conditions persist. Otherwise high temps today have gotten into the upper 70s to low 80s and should peak within the next hour or so. As we get into tonight upper level troughing gradually pushes offshore as a flattening ridge begins to build in from the west. At the same time 700 mb front will finally push through the area allowing for subsidence to build across ENC tonight ending the precip threat across the area after sunset from northwest to southeast with the last of the precip off the coast around midnight. While precip moves out, a moist boundary layer remains bringing a threat for low stratus and patchy fog to ENC tonight. If fog were to develop guidance continues to suggests it would begin to form across the Inner Coastal Plain first after about midnight and spread E'wards where it had rained earlier in the day. Lows tonight get into the mid 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Thurs...Mid/upper level trough continues to push further offshore on Friday as high pressure starts to ridge S'wards across the Carolinas. Decreased forcing and a drop in PWATs will bring partly cloudy skies and generally dry conditions to ENC to end our workweek. Some hi-res guidance is trying to show a few isolated showers along the coastal plain in the evening Friday, but continued to keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast for now given lack of forcing and expected widespread dry air moving over the area. With light NE'rly flow across the area temps get into the mid 70s to low 80s on Fri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Thursday...Mid/upper level trough moves offshore Friday and ridging starts building in through the weekend as a low spins up offshore to our northeast, gradually shifting to our east. Seasonable (or just below) temps through the period and generally dry through Tuesday. The Weekend: Dry conditions expected to start the weekend as ridging takes over ENC. Low off the delmarva/NJ coast starts shifting south, but there is still some model uncertainty on the strength of the low and how close to us it reaches. Regardless it will be too far away for any substantial impacts, but it could produce gusts of 20-25 mph for OBX and some showers along and east of hwy 17 along a shortwave. This low could also produce high swell impacting OBX beaches. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more information. Monday-Wednesday: Ridging and dry conditions continue through Wednesday. The high over the SE starts weakening and a low trekking across the great lakes region brings higher chances of rain to end the week. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 115 PM Thurs...Mo cloudy skies, scattered showers, and iso tstms are currently noted across ENC this afternoon as a 700 mb front slowly tracks S'wards. A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings has overspread ENC as of this update and expect ceilings to gradually rise as the afternoon goes on with a brief period of VFR ceilings likely later today across all terminals. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur this afternoon into early evening. Due to the isolated nature of the thunderstorm threat, I did not feel confident enough to even include a tempo TS risk in the TAFs so left a VCTS mention at all sites through this afternoon. Guidance continues to hint at a period of sub VFR ceilings and visibility after about 06Z tonight and given the current scattered shower activity and expected moist low levels tonight I am inclined to believe it. So once again indicating a period of IFR ceilings/vis in the forecast after 06Z. Expect any low clouds and patchy fog to quickly lift Fri morning with VFR conditions returning across all of ENC by midday. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 345 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the long term, although Saturday morning could see some fog as skies clear and winds calm. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Friday/... As of 330 PM Thurs... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist across our waters mainly south of Oregon Inlet today bringing a low end threat for some locally enhanced winds and seas to the area. Otherwise with high pressure ridging gradually building S'wards into the Carolinas through Friday a 5-15 kt N-NE'rly wind with gusts up to 15-20 kts will persist across all waters through Friday. 3-5 ft seas are currently noted across our coastal waters this afternoon and shouldn't change much through Friday, though it should be noted seas are forcast to be on the increase late Fri afternoon or early Fri evening as swell from a deepening non-tropical low to the northeast begins to arrive. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 345 AM Thursday...Sustained northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt Friday, near 15 kt Saturday, then 15-20 kt Sunday/Monday. Winds have trended down a tad Sunday into Monday morning, and while SCA conditions are likely, chances of gale force winds have decreased to 10%. The strength of the winds depends on the position and strength of the low developing offshore to our northeast, and how strong the ridging pushing in from the north is. Seas will be 2-4 ft Friday, 3-6 ft Saturday, 4-7 ft Sunday, and 4-9 ft Monday as gusty winds + the low offshore results in higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow will be a bit protected from the more easterly swell courtesy of Cape Lookout, and will be on the lower end of these wave height ranges. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 PM Thurs...Coastal flooding will continue to be a risk given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle through this weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for all oceanside coastal areas into SUnday mornings high tide. Increased swell from a low offshore brings overwash risks late this weekend into early next week for OBX. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Friday night to 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...RCF/RJ MARINE...RCF/RJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX