FXUS62 KILM 142309 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 709 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue through early next week as onshore flow persists. Low pressure developing along a stalled front offshore may attain some tropical characteristics before moving back toward the coast. Regardless, the low is expected to bring some gusty winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the region through the first part of the week. A stalled upper low may keep the weather unsettled through the remainder of the week. && .UPDATE... Via latest radar trends, Pops increased, especially far inland to atleast chance for portions of this evening. Continued and/or added thunder for the majority of this evening, mainly closer to the coast. Ended the coastal flood adv threat for this evening for the immediate coast with levels having already dropped below flood adv thresholds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure ridging into the area from the north and slowly developing low pressure along a front off the coast, will keep moist air in place over the area through the forecast period. This will result in abundant cloudiness and scattered showers through the period. Lows tonight will be within a couple degrees of 70, Highs Sunday will reach the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key messages: *Confidence continues to increase with low pressure development offshore tonight into Sunday, along with a track toward the Carolinas coast Monday. *Uncertainty remains as to where exactly this system crosses the coast at this time since the track will be highly dependent on where the low forms offshore. *Wherever this system moves, heavy rainfall is likely mainly near and northwest through east of the center (with peak amounts in the 2-5 inch range possible). *Gusty winds are also possible, especially on the northern side of the low as a result of high pressure ridging in from the north. Discussion: The GFS continues to remain the most aggressive and fastest of the models with the offshore low coming ashore Monday morning. Unfortunately some disparity remains between the other models including the much slower/weaker ECMWF. There is also a chance that the low attains tropical characteristics prior to moving onshore. Regardless of the storm's characteristics there is an increasing likelihood of impacts including coastal flooding, rough maritime conditions, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. The current thinking is that areas generally east of an Elizabethtown, NC to Georgetown, SC line will see 2 to 5 inch amounts. Coastal areas will also likely see gusts to 30-40 mph thanks to the strong Ely gradient between high pressure to the north and the developing low. If the faster GFS scenario prevails then conditions would improve by Monday night and Tuesday with lower PoPs than what is currently advertised. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The old low is expected to continue lifting away from the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday as the mid/upper ridge north and northeast of the low slides off toward the east. This will allow a trough to linger across the eastern U.S., possibly cutting-off and weakening through the upcoming weekend. Higher PWATs could linger across the area supporting some PoPs with an active sea breeze. Temperatures will recover during the long term, and could be above normal Wed-Fri timeframe. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overall expect mainly MVFR conditions through the forecast period with gusty e-ne winds. Could be showers at times nearer the coast. IFR cigs are possible overnight. Overall, not great flying weather through the period. Extended Outlook... High chances for rain and MVFR/IFR conditions expected through early next week as the pattern remains pretty stagnant. Offshore low pressure could possibly directly impact the area which would bring more significant restrictions and stronger winds. Should see some improvement Wed. && .MARINE... Through Through Sunday...E to NE winds of 20 to 25 KT with higher gusts are expected through the period. Seas of 5 to 7 feet this afternoon will build through Sunday afternoon, ranging from 8 to 11 FT northern water to 6 to 10 feet southern waters. Sunday through Thursday...Given the developing area of low pressure offshore tonight into Sunday, along with ridging in from the north, the potential for Gale Force winds continues to increase. As a result, a Gale Watch has been posted for all coastal waters from Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. If the low is able to attain tropical characteristics then the Gale headiness will be replaced. The track and timing of the low remain problematic and the GFS remains the most aggressive and quickest, while the ECMWF is much slower/weaker. Regardless of how the low evolves this system will result in hazardous maritime conditions. The general trend is for better maritime conditions possibly as early as Tuesday, but more likely by Wednesday into Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Elevated astronomical tides and strong northeasterly winds will lead to elevated tide levels and the potential for minor coastal flooding at times through early next week. Offshore low pressure could also have more of a direct impact on water levels and coastal flooding with each high tide Sunday through Monday. Other - Rip Currents: Easterly waves will drive an elevated risk of rip currents, especially for east and southeast facing beaches through Monday. In addition, persistent northeasterly winds will produce moderate to strong longshore currents. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...31 MARINE...SRP/31 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM