FXUS66 KHNX 142115
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
215 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A cooldown will take place on Sunday and continue on Monday.
Temperatures will lower to below average on Monday and remain
below average through Thursday.

2. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 11 PM
Sunday night through 5 PM Monday afternoon above 8,000 feet from
Fresno County to Yosemite NP. There is a 55 percent probability
of 2 inches or more of snow at Tioga Pass as snow levels drop
to 7500 feet on Monday.

3. There is a 30 to 50 percent probability of measurable
rainfall for most of the San Joaquin Valley on Monday.

4. Winds will pick up in Eastern Kern County on Monday and
again later in the week. These increases in wind gusts can
increases the threat of wildfires despite better humidity
recovery.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper shortwave is currently moving across
central CA, but surface high pressure prevails providing our
area with mainly clear skies and above normal temperatures with
most of the CWFA running 3 to 5 DEG F above yday at this time. A
cooling trend is expected to begin on Sunday as a strong upper
trough deepens off the western CONUS coast.

The trough is then progged to push through CA on Monday and
bring much cooler than normal temperatures along with chances
of precipitation and a period of increased winds over the wind
prone areas. In the San Joaquin Valley, the PoE of 80 DEG F
lowers to near zero on Monday and the PoE of 75 DEG F lowers to
25 to 45 percent for most of the valley. QPF progs are showing
a tenth to a quarter inch of liquid precipitation over the
Sierra Nevada in the Yosemite Park area on Monday morning
through Monday evening with the snow level lowering to 7500
feet by Monday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for elevations above 8000 feet in the Sierra Nevada from
Fresno County northward from 11 PM Sunday night through 5 PM
Monday afternoon as there is a 55 percent probability of 2
inches or more of snow at Tioga Pass and a a 40 percent
probability of 2 inches or more of snow at Tuolumne Meadows.
There is also enough instability and CAPE projected for the
Sierra Nevada from Fresno County northward for isolated
thunderstorms on Monday. Further south and west precipitation
chances are and progged amounts are lower with most of the San
Joaquin Valley from Fresno County northward having a 30 to 50
percent probability of measurable rainfall on Monday. Increased
winds along the Mojave Desert Slopes and the Kern County Deserts
are also expected with the trough passage on Monday as the PoE
of gusts exceeding 35 mph remains at 20 to 45 percent for these
areas.

This main upper low center from the trough is progged to lift
northeast and move across the Great Basin on Tuesday resulting
in mainly clear skies and dry conditions across our area with
daytime maximum temperatures recovering by 5 to 10 DEG F.

Another upper low pressure system is progged to drop southward
behind the departing low and impact central CA on Wednesday
afternoon and evening and bring additional chances of
precipitation to our area. Snow levels with this system are
progged to bet between 9000 and 9500 feet, but Tioga Pass could
still be impacted. QPF progs are indicating that this system
will be wetter than the Monday system and provide the SIerra
Nevada with a quarter to half an inch of liquid precipitation
on Wednesday and Thursday. Only a few hundredths of an inch of
rainfall at most is anticiapted for the San Joaquin Valley, but
chances low to be better compared to the Monday system as the
midweek system is progged to contain more moisture.

The second system as well as the upper trough are progged to
move east of our area on Friday as a high pressure ridge
amplifies off the western CONUS coast. The ridge is then
progged to build inland next weekend. This will result in dry
weather from Friday onward across our area with temperatures
rising to near normal by Friday and above normal for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities near
wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
central CA interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory above 8000 feet from 11 PM Sunday to 5
PM PDT Monday for CAZ323-326>328.
&&

$$

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