FXUS63 KEAX 140452 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1152 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Appreciable precipitation remains hard to come by with low (<30- 35%) through the forecast period and tending to just clip eastern and western edges . * Aside from today, highs largely seasonable to seasonably warm in the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Large scale weather pattern will remain transitional over the area with Francine remnants lingering just to the S/SE, larger Rex Block centered to the west, and large western trough. Eventually, this will transition to a messy Omega Block pattern next week, likely continuing stagnant weather conditions over the area. As of early this afternoon, the virtually vertically stacked Francine remnants remain centered over N/NE Arkansas, and will slowly drift eastward and continue to dissipate/be absorbed into larger flow. Given the transitional nature of the pattern overhead, models do continue to differ in how much (if any) Francine energy peels off and streams over Missouri into the larger SW flow aloft, of which a small piece of this can be seen traversing northern MO into southern IA currently. Majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance point towards remnants largely being relegated to Gulf Coast region, leaving the CWA underneath periods of cloud cover but largely dry conditions through the weekend. Far eastern areas remain most likely to see any measurable precipitation, but remain on the lower end of probabilities, about 30% or less, through the weekend and peaking Sunday. During this time, Francine remnants will continue to dissipate over the southern Gulf states and the existing Rex Block will begin to weaken and potentially transition the larger CONUS pattern towards an Omega block. Said Omega block potential is appearing more likely with bit more consistency in deterministic guidance developing a tropical system off the Carolina coast early next week and bringing it westward/inland, in conjunction with the western trough deepening and allowing central CONUS ridging to amplify. As multiple shortwaves move through the PNW and Intermountain West, there remains uncertainty in how much (if any) lift and convergence will reach the area given the blocking pattern likely in place. For now, PoPs over western areas remain, but also remain quite low (<30%) from mid to late week. Throughout this time, surface winds will tend to remain southerly, allowing highs to build into mid and upper 80s. Wild card will be cloud cover at times, and may determine if any lower 90s are able to return. Beyond the existing 7-day forecast window, there are hints of the series of western waves shifting the overall pattern eastward. This would in turn likely bring increased precipitation chances to the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 MVFR CIGs have set in at MCI/MKC/STJ, and should develop at IXD within the next hour or two. MVFR CIGs should continue through the overnight and morning hours (some patchy fog possible), with periods of IFR CIGs possible toward sunrise. Conditions are likely to improve to VFR by around 19z Saturday. Winds should remain light and out of the east southeast through the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...BMW