FXUS63 KEAX 081902
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
202 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather expected (>95%) through the workweek.

- Temperatures trend warmer through the week with temperatures in
  the upper 80s and lower 90s on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Dry weather is expected to persist through the week with dry high
pressure spreading into the Southeast and stifling any chance for
meaningful moisture return. The NBM shows a greater than 95% chance
for dry weather through the end of the workweek due to the lack
of moisture return into the area. While it will be dry through
the week, temperatures will trend above normal by Tuesday and
by Wednesday we'll likely see highs climb into the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Much of the area will see at least a 40-50% of
seeing highs of 90 degrees or warmer. But the greatest
probabilities for this will be across eastern KS and western MO,
and particularly in our southwestern zones. This is due in
large part to broad upper ridging across the middle of the
country and strong southwesterly warm advection aloft.

Late in the week to the weekend, there is a very small chance for
precipitation. A tropical system is likely to impact the western to
central Gulf coast and then track through the lower Mississippi
valley into the lower Ohio Valley. Right now, it's unlikely this
system will bring any rainfall to the forecast area. In fact, the
NBM brings a 10% chance or less to only our far southeastern zones
with this system. This isn't enough to mention in the forecast at
this time. Greater chances for rainfall move into the area Saturday
night into Sunday. There may be enough moisture transport into the
central Plains that enough instability develops to lead to
convection to our west that drifts into far northwestern MO and
northeastern KS. Outside of those small chances, the forecast looks
dry and with temperatures near to above normal, will likely lead to
worsening drought conditions for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Light south winds
this afternoon will back to the southeast overnight and then
veer back to the south late tomorrow morning. Wind speeds will
be less than 10kts through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB