FXUS63 KEAX 080816
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly conditions expected this morning with some patches of fog
  possible as the sun rises. Lows in the upper 40s are also
  expected Sunday into Monday.

- Temperatures trend warmer beginning today reaching toward 90
  degrees mid to late week.

- No precipitation expected until next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Ridging and high pressure are the themes for the week as a stout
high pressure system steers waves and storm potential around and
away from the region. Currently a surface high sits over much of the
mid-Mississippi River Valley leading to clear conditions and
generally calm winds. This uninhibited radiational cooling swiftly
lowered temperatures in the 50s for the KC metro, 40s across much of
the rest of the region, and even a chance at upper 30s across far NE
MO. As temperatures descend, the potential for fog remains. Fog is
most likely to be concentrated to valleys and areas near large
bodies of water where water temperatures look to be about 1.5 times
the expected air temperature. Conditions for patchy fog
continue through just past sunrise. Isolated pockets of sub 1
mile visibility are possible, but widespread dense fog is not
expected. Winds may be just strong enough overnight to curtail fog
development.

As the surface high slides eastward Sunday, flow returns to
southerly on the western side of the system promoting the advection
of warm dry air across the southern Rockies. Early workweek highs
start out in the mid-80s climbing towards 90 degrees midweek. Upper
level northwesterly flow and weak lower level flow from the Gulf
limits moisture transport into the region keeping humidity low.
Furthermore, a blocking high at 850mb redirects shortwaves north of
the region keeping storm chances minimal.

The upper level pattern remains fairly benign over the central CONUS
through much of the week as the blocking high settles over the
eastern CONUS. Things get more interesting towards next weekend. An
upper level trough is expected to dig across the Pacific NW while
simultaneously, a tropical disturbance in the Gulf, which NHC thinks
will continue to strengthen, advances northward into TX/LA/MS. The
interaction between the continental low to the NW and the then
expected extra-tropical cyclone across the inland Gulf Coast will be
the key to precipitation expectations for our area.  Both systems
look to converge toward the mid-MS Valley as next weekend
approaches. At this juncture, there is far too much forecast spread
to get anything more than a general idea of storm track, timing, and
precipitation chances. Some members lift the extra-tropical cyclone
directly northward into southern MO bringing showers and
thunderstorms earlier in the weekend while a majority of models are
leaning toward the extra-tropical cyclone pushing more eastward into
the TN Valley. Precipitation chances for far eastern KS and western
MO become limited to the Pacific NW wave which is expected to arrive
around Sat to Sunday afternoon/evening. Again, guidance remains
quite variable at this time and small adjustments in the short term
will greatly affect longer term forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain for the duration of the TAF
period. Winds are anticipated to remain weak and shift to the south
by tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Collier