FXUS62 KMHX 310242 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1042 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered to the east in the Atlantic through the weekend while multiple fronts impact ENC. The first front will approach the region Friday, bringing increased shower and thunderstorm chances. The front lifts back north on Saturday with a second front approaching the area on Sunday and then moving through on Monday, keeping things unsettled into early next week before high pressure finally builds in from the north. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 10:30 PM Fri...Radar has quieted down within the past couple of hours thanks to the loss of daytime heating. Given the copious amounts of rainfall that dumped today and calm winds overnight, impactful fog and low stratus are on the table for the entire FA. Conditions may be slow to improve after sunrise. Lows tonight in the low 70s again inland, mid 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM Fri...Frontal boundary will linger around the area in the morning before lifting northward. Upper level support will not be as strong tomorrow, but with temperatures still well into the 80s and dew points remaining in the 70s there will likely be enough buoyancy to support scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Focus will be primarily along the sea breeze tomorrow, and the forecast follows a typical summer convective pattern with highest PoPs in the afternoon and evening hours. Shear will be weaker than today, and no severe risk is anticipated. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 4 AM Fri...A period of unsettled weather will occasionally affect ENC through Monday, then a cooler air mass with limited rain chances Tue through mid week. Sunday...Ocnl diurnal/evening showers/storms through this weekend (20-40% chc), as a wavy front lingers across the region. Limited severe chances as effective shear will be 10 kt or less. Temps will be near to slightly above climo, generally 85-90 for highs, and low 70s for lows. Monday...The front finally pushes through on Monday, and brings with it the best chance for widespread showers/storms. Have enough confidence on timing to bump up pops (40-70%), highest srn zones where a sea breeze interacts with the front before it pushes through. Decent QPF amounts of 0.5-1" appear likely, with locally higher amounts in heavier convective cells. Perhaps a better chance for some strong storms as shear inc to 20-30 kt, but CAPE vals will be a bit less (<1500 J/KG) with cooler temps and more widespread cloud cover. Tuesday through Thursday...A much cooler and drier airmass for most of ENC will try to work in behind the aforementioned front, and areas across northern NC will have the best chances of seeing more pleasant and seasonable conditions with mo sunny skies and drier weather. However areas farther south may remain stuck in clouds with perhaps some ocnl rain, though with a brisk nerly wind expected, any precip will be overrunning with limited thunder threat. Highs near 80 for most, with lows in the 60s. Have kept fcst pop-free for nrn 2/3 of the FA, while hanging onto a 20% chc for the srn zones. Highs generally near 80 with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Until 18z Sat/... As of 10:30 PM Friday...There is a strong signal for fog and low stratus tonight given light winds in the forecast and very saturated soils from today's rainfall. The best chance for decreased visibility will be along western terminals (PGV and ISO) between 8-12Z but all TAF sites are likely to experience at least some period of sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities during the overnight hours. Conditions may be slow to improve tomorrow with low stratus potentially hanging on through mid-morning. After the stratus lifts, conditions should return to VFR. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast tomorrow afternoon but the severe risk is low. LONG TERM /Sat through Tue/... As of 4 AM Fri...More unsettled conditions are expected through the weekend as a front moves into the region and stalls. This will bring the potential for bouts of sub-VFR conditions but outside of those instances expect VFR conditions to prevail. Monday stands the best chc for more widespread showers/storms, then Tue through midweek will trend dry. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 245 PM Friday...Benign conditions persist over area waters this afternoon as a weak cold front sinks southward to roughly Oregon Inlet westward. Outside of spotty convective activity, winds are variable and around 5 kt. Seas offshore sit at 2-3 feet and will persist through the period as the front continues to meander tonight into tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, the front is expected to lift back northward with a return of southwesterly winds around 10-15 kt. Seas hold at 2-4 feet into the first half of the weekend. LONG TERM /Sat night through Wed/... As of 4 AM Fri...Good boating conditions are expected through this weekend with Bermuda high pressure reestablishing offshore. By Saturday sswrly flow will return with winds around 5-15 kts with gusts to around 20 kt, and will cont through Sunday. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the period, though some 4 footers may occasionally develop across the outer waters. Monday, cold front expected to return from the north and push through all of ENC late in the day. Tuesday will see gusty nerly gradient winds of 15-25 kt with SCA conditions trending more likely for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound, perhaps for the remaining sounds and Neuse river as well. Seas will inc to 5-8 ft for the coastal waters for Tue through Wed. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...OJC/TL MARINE...TL/MS