FXUS63 KEAX 270813
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot and humid conditions are expected again this
  afternoon.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible late
  afternoon into the evening hours.

- While not as hot, above normal temperatures are likely to
  continue through Thursday afternoon.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday night into
  Friday morning as a cold front moves toward and through the
  region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

The current synoptic weather pattern is characterized by a 598
dam high centered over Missouri at 500 mb with a relatively
potent shortwave trough translating out of the northern High
Plains into the Dakotas. At the surface, a cold front extends
from near Duluth to the southwest into central Nebraska. A
decaying MCS over SE Nebraska has sent an outflow boundary into
NE Kansas and NW Missouri, which has resulted in the development
of some isolated showers in these areas. Otherwise, current
conditions are characterized by temperatures ranging from the
mid 70s to lower 80s with clear skies and generally light
southwesterly winds. Temperatures and heat indices should be
several degrees cooler today, but it will be another hot day
across the region with highs in the mid 90s for most locations.
The heat advisory remains in effect through 8 pm tonight for
portions of central, north central, and northeastern Missouri.

By mid to late afternoon, strong surface heating should overcome
convective inhibition, with moderate to high instability in
place. This may generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms
later this afternoon into the late evening hours. SPC has
included most of the CWA within a marginal risk for severe
storms, but very weak deep layer shear should keep the severe
threat tempered. However, we could see some small hail and
microbursts.

For tomorrow, the aforementioned trough across the Northern
Plains scoots eastward toward the northern Great Lakes,
flattening out the ridge and sending the center of the mid
level high into the Southeastern CONUS. This will result in high
temperatures as cool as the upper 80s over northern MO with low
to mid 90s elsewhere.

As we head into Thursday evening/night, a well developed closed
low and associated trough over the Northern High Plains/southern
Canadian Plains ejects across the Upper Midwest, sending a cold
front toward the region from the northwest. This will bring
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening
into Friday morning, with much cooler temperatures coming behind
the front for Friday and into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 22Z Tuesday.
Thereafter, isolated to scattered storms are possible. As a
starting point, added a mention of prob30 for the metro tafs.
Some of these storms could also create gusty winds through the
evening hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-046.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BT