FXUS66 KHNX 262030
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
130 PM PDT Mon Aug 26 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There is a 40-60 percent probability of afternoon highs in
most of the San Joaquin Valley returning 100 degrees and above
between Tuesday and Thursday.

2. Low daytime humidity and poor overnight recovery will provide
for an elevated risk of grass fires in eastern Kern County and
over the West Side Hills by mid-week.

3. There is a low chance of mountain thunderstorms next weekend
that could further enhance the fire risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another clear day across Central California with temperatures
on their way to reaching near normal values. The San Joaquin
Valley will see highs in the mid 90s after a nice morning with
overnight lows dipped into the 50s. Central California has
starting another warming trend with afternoon highs reaching
toward the 100 degree mark by mid-week. This will be the result
of having the ridge of high pressure return to the area as dry
and light winds dominate the region. While surface pressure
gradients from KSFO to KLAS were reaching 5mb, values are now
dropping to 1mb or less which indicates the ridge of high
pressure now has control. As the highs sits over the West,
temperatures will rise to around the triple digit value for the
latter part of the week. In addition, the ridge will also allow
Monsoonal moisture to wrap around and surge into the Kern County
Desert and Eastern Sierra Nevada by the end of the week with
minimal chances (around 15 percent) of afternoon thunderstorms.

In the very short-term, High-Res ensemble analysis as a good
handle on the exiting disturbance and indicates a positive climb
in temperatures toward the triple digits. High-Res ensembles
also show another disturbance moving the Pacific Northwest and
along the Canadian border. Upper level water vapor satellite
imagery is currently showing the disturbance west of Vancouver
Island and pushing onshore within the next 18 to 24 hours. While
this disturbance will provide the district will no chance of
precipitation, it will help limit the amount of warming Central
California will experience. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of
reaching 100 degree ranges from 40 to 70 percent across the San
Joaquin Valley on Wednesday. This day will the period of peak
heating as high will linger near normal (i.e. mid 90s) going
into the weekend. During this period, ensemble PoE struggle to
reach widespread percentages above 60 percent.

In the long-term periods, the ridge of the high pressure
continues to sit over the Four Corners area and allow moisture
to surge northwestward toward California from Arizona. Ensembles
show the earliest onset of moisture surging toward Central
California on Thursday evening. Yet, the atmosphere has a better
chance of having deep moisture on Friday then that of Thursday.
Therefore, Probability of measurable Precipitation and
Probability of Thunder do approach 15-20 percent on Friday. At
this point, will continue to mention at least a slight chance as
convection which will be confined to the Kern Desert and crest
of the Sierra Nevada going into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities near wildfires.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Operations.....Molina
Support/IDSS....AS

weather.gov/hanford