FXUS63 KFGF 261153 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 653 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening for areas for southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota. The highest risk level is 3 out of 5 (enhanced) for a part of west central Minnesota, including Grant County in our forecast area. - Severe thunderstorm risk level up to 2 out of 5 (slight) for Wednesday evening and overnight for parts of southeast North Dakota. Rest of the area sees a risk level of 1 out of 5 (marginal). && .UPDATE... Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 The elevated showers and a couple thunderstorms that were over parts of far SE ND northeast toward Baudette along the cold front have moved out as the cold front east. This leaves the area a dry start as of 12z and dry conditions are anticipated into early afternoon. Late day t-storms may form in west central/central MN...but more likely will be chance for any line of storms from the southwest moves east-northeast across our far south. High uncertainity with this scenario. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 ...Synopsis... 500 mb wave to move northeast thru the area on Tuesday. A strong 500 mb wave will move east from southern B.C. into southern Saskatchewan Wednedsday. This upper low moves out Friday with sfc high building in for the weekend. Today/Tonight... 300 mb jet max moving northeast into central SD by 00z Tues will generate enough lift and also 700 mb frontogenesis increases over eastern SD (esp east central/SE SD) by 00z. Thunderstorms are likely to form in the SE quad of the 300 mb jet max over eastern SD by 00z and move east. The storms are likely to quickly form a QLCS and likely turn into a bow echo with damaging wind threat east thru southern half of MN this evening/night. Per coord with SPC northern edge of bow echo. bookend vortex may brush the far southern fcst area and hence why SPC has anywhere from marginal to enhanced outlook for later today in SE ND into central MN. Main impacts in regards to winds do look to be south of the fcst area however. The actual cold front (dew pt front) is making its way southeast ward and eventually will wash out as north winds take over southward as sfc low develops west of Sioux Falls today. For most of the area today is dry with much more comfortable airmass in place and highs in the 70s. 500 mb wave moves thru Tuesday generating scattered showers. ECMWF model remains the wettest with this system compared to GFS/Canadian Global and national model blends. Wednesday will see 850 mb winds turn southerly and increase quickly by late in the day ahead of a strong 500 mb low that will move moving into southern Saskatchewan. 850 mb jet increaess to 40-50 kts thru E ND/RRV Thursday 00z-06z period, focus 03-06z period. Strong warm and moist advection as well at the 800-850 mb layer with soundings supporting an elevated unstable layer from 800 to 500 mb with elevated CAPE values from 850 mb of 2500 j/kg Wed eve. All signs point to elevated supercell potential with large hail being the main threat. SPC has area in marginal to slight risk for day 3. High pressure and a drier/stable airmass moves in Friday and lasts into Monday. Nice weather for Labor Day weekend. Highs in the 70s and lows upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 For the TAF sites VFR conditions today thru tonight with some mid or high clouds at times. Far SE ND northeast to just south of Bemidji will see potential for low clouds to linger thru mid morning before going with mid clouds for the rest of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle