FXHW60 PHFO 140646 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 846 PM HST Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will ease briefly Wednesday through Thursday, then return to breezy levels Friday through the weekend. Showers will favor windward and mauka locations, particularly during the overnight and early morning periods as areas of moisture move through. && .DISCUSSION... Short-term guidance remains in decent agreement, depicting a mostly dry trade wind pattern prevailing through Wednesday as surface high pressure remains centered north of the area. A broad surface trough (remnants of former TC Emilia), located around 700 miles east of Hilo this evening, will move through the area from east to west Wednesday night through Thursday night, likely weakening the local trades to moderate levels. This broad surface trough, combined with a mid-level trough and an increase in low- level moisture, could lead to better shower coverage, primarily for windward and mauka locations. Breezy trade wind conditions are expected to return Friday through the weekend as the aforementioned trough begins to track away from the state and the deep-layer ridge strengthens. A modest increase in low-level moisture, accompanying another low- to mid- level trough passing to the south, could translate to increasing shower coverage Sunday through early Monday, most likely over the eastern end of the state. && .AVIATION... Surface high pressure north of the area will continue to generate moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the area through the forecast period. Expect showers to stick mainly to windward locations, through some spillover to leeward areas may occur. Some of the more robust showers may bring brief periods of MVFR cigs and visibilities. VFR conditions expected elsewhere. No AIRMETs are currently in effect. However, AIRMET Sierra for mountain observation may be needed later tonight with the night time shower enhancement. && .MARINE... Moderate to locally strong trade winds will continue through the weekend, with a brief easing possible late Wednesday through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in place through 6 AM Thursday for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island and will likely need to be extended through the weekend. Several small long-period swells from the south and southeast will produce some small surf along south facing shores through the work week. A more significant south swell will arrive late Sunday and Sunday night, peak above the summertime average Monday, then slowly lower through the middle of next week. Seasonally flat to tiny surf is expected through early next week for north facing shores. Little change in east shore surf is expected during the next 7 days, with surf remaining near or slightly below normal levels. The combination of the full moon and water levels running around 0.5 ft higher than normal should produce minor coastal flooding each afternoon along the shorelines across the state beginning 8/17 and likely continuing through 8/20. A Coastal Flood Statement will eventually be needed as we get closer to the event. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gibbs AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Jelsema