FXUS62 KILM 140159 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 959 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalled just to the south will maintain unsettled weather through tonight. After a few showers Wednesday, a gradual drying trend will begin as high pressure builds in. Cooler, drier air should lead to rain-free end of the week before the high shifts offshore this weekend. && .UPDATE... The convection over Georgetown and Williamsburg counties has dissipated. All PoPs have been removed for the forecast area overnight. No other major changes to the forecast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid-level troughing over the Eastern Seaboard will gradually deepen as shortwave energy dives down the backside of the trough on Wednesday. This will increase mid-level subsidence and nudge the stationary front currently positioned between Charleston and Savannah further south. Surface high pressure to our north will take a firm hold on Wednesday with lower dew points filtering in. While most areas will be dry and relatively comfortable all day, isolated and shallow pop-up showers cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze. Temperatures will fall to near or slightly-below normal values, with morning lows in the upper 60s to low 70s and daytime highs in the mid-upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cyclonic flow will be in place through Thursday allowing for the drying trend to continue. The upper level flow will become more relaxed in time through Friday but PW's remain on the lower side of climatology and with no forcing mechanism in place the forecast remains essentially pop free. Pleasant temperatures remain with highs in the middle to upper 80s (warmer Friday) and lows in the middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... No significant systems or changes to the extended forecast. Residual pleasant airmass will modify slowly as the area of high pressure drifts offshore. Temperatures will trend more toward climatology in time. As for pops...decent values do start to show up late as another front approaches the area from the west but confidence is of course low on this feature at this time. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Evening convection has ended so with a northeast flow of less than 6 knots overnight and no precipitation or mist expected. VFR conditions are forecasted for the next 24 hours. Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR is expected outside of early morning fog/low clouds as dry high pressure builds in for the remainder of the week. As the high moves offshore this weekend, returning moisture will lead to isolated pop-up showers and storms more typical of summer. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Surface high pressure to the north will maintain a steady ENE breeze at 10-15 kts across the area waters through Wednesday. Waves mainly in the 2-3 ft range will be driven by a combination of 2 ft easterly wind waves at 4-5 sec and 2 ft southeasterly swells at 9-10 sec. Wednesday Night through Sunday... Modest NE flow will be in place Wednesday Night into the day Thursday. As high pressure drifts offshore the flow will take a familiar trend with east south to southeast winds developing. The pressure gradient isn't overly impressive on any particular day so wind speeds will be in a range of 10-15 knots. The story regarding significant seas will be a larger swell component early this weekend from Ernesto probably resulting in a small craft advisory. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Swells from Ernesto will arrive late Friday and continue into this weekend. While the timing of local surf impacts is not certain at this time, we do expect dangerous surf and strong rip currents to exist this weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RH NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RH MARINE...SHK/ABW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...