FXUS66 KEKA 141152 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 452 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon in Trinity county. Below average temperatures and gusty afternoon winds in the interior for the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper trough offshore has brought cooler temperatures in the interior and the return of stratus to the coast early this morning. A weaker inversion will allow for some afternoon clearing, with stratus building back in tonight. Inland, the trough is gradually cooling temperatures, with mid to high 80s expected in most the interior valleys. Afternoon winds are expected to be gusty in interior Lake and Mendocino counties, with NBM showing around a 60-80 percent chance for peak gusts over 30 mph this afternoon, with better chances and stronger winds in the ridges. Additionally, there is a low chance for thunderstorms to develop this afternoon in NE Trinity county. Model soundings are showing limited instability even as mid-level moisture increases, so confidence remains low. A stronger upper-level low will approach the area Friday and into the weekend. Interior temperatures are forecast to drop a few degrees further into the high 70s and 80s. Upper-level moisture is fairly high, enough to potentially bring showers and thunderstorms in Trinity county and coastal drizzle. Models indicate that more widespread rain showers are possible into Humboldt and Del Norte, but remains unlikely. JB && .AVIATION...Marine stratus has built back in along the coast overnight to mostly IFR/LIFR. Intermittent periods of MVFR to VFR could occur at ACV into the morning. A weak inversion will allow clouds to scatter or clear into the afternoon. By this evening, stratus is anticipated to deepen and become more widespread. At Ukiah, gusty northwesterly winds are anticipated for the afternoon, before decreasing into the evening hours. && .MARINE...Light to moderate winds will persist across the coastal waters with a relatively low sea state continuing as well. An upper disturbance approaching from offshore has the potential to cause increasing winds up to 15 to 20 kt across the southern waters late Thursday and into Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Gusty afternoon winds of 25-30 mph are forecast today in interior Mendocino and Lake counties. Afternoon RHs are forecast slightly higher today with min RHs at 25-30 percent. Winds will continue to be gusty in the afternoons in Lake and Mendocino in the coming days, but are forecast to come down slightly after today. There is a low chance for thunderstorms today in NE Trinity county. And isolated lightning strikes will likely be dry. A stronger upper- level low is expected to park offshore Friday into the weekend, bringing better RH recoveries and lowering temperatures slightly. Light rain showers or drizzle is possible near the coast, with showers and thunderstorms possible in Trinity county Saturday afternoon. Wetting rain is unlikely, though NBM does show a 20-30 percent chance in parts of Del Norte county. Confidence remains low on exact impacts, so stay tuned. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png