FXUS62 KMHX 270748 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 348 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to push south through southern NC this morning with cooler and drier high pressure building in from the north behind it today. High pressure then remains over the area tomorrow and Monday before eventually pushing offshore. Heat and humidity rebuilds Tuesday onward with broad ridging over the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Sat...A cold front will push south of Eastern NC this morning and bring an end to our recent wet pattern. But before that happens scattered showers will continue for the next few hours, especially along the Crystal Coast and Outer/Inner Banks where activity will be the most widespread and continue through at least mid morning. Drier air will move into the area from the north later this morning as high pressure builds in from the Mid-Atlantic. This will cause quickly clearing skies across northern NC soon after sunrise, while conditions remain cloudy and somewhat showery further south until the afternoon as moisture from the front hangs around just off the southern coast. Expect below normal highs with readings mostly in the low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Sat...Dry high pressure will settle in over the area tonight with mostly clear skies expected. Good radiational cooling conditions will promote strong cooling inland, and temperatures will drop into the low 60s here, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. With the anticipated cooling and recent heavy rains there will be a risk for some patchy fog development, but not sure of the extent yet. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM Sat...Drier pattern lingers into Monday before returning to a more typical summertime pattern of scattered, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through the next work week. Sun through Mon...Cutoff low off the coast of the mid- Atlantic will retreat back into New England to start the period. High pressure will still be overhead to start Sunday, but will quickly shift east over the Atlantic on Monday. Dry conditions will continue both days as dry air and subsidence spill over the Carolinas thanks to northerly flow aloft. Conditions will feel more comfortable compared to the past several days as dew points drop into the low to mid-60s, especially across the coastal plain, while highs top out in the mid to upper 80s - slightly below average for late July. By Monday, as high pushes offshore southerly flow will usher in higher dew points and a return to more typically humid conditions. Tues through Fri...Brief period of ridging aloft breaks down after Monday as the cutoff low continues to meander westward before being absorbed by the northern stream shortwave. This will leave a general troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the week, meaning moist southwesterly flow returns along with a more typical summertime regime characterized by diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Support aloft will not be nearly as strong, and moisture not as anomalous as the previous several days, so climo PoPs are appropriate for ENC starting Tuesday. Wednesday is trending towards being the most favorable day for storms while troughing is at its most pronounced. Mid- level heights rise above average, and temperatures gradually follow suit, increasing to near- normal readings in the low 90s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/... As of 2 AM Sat...MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to form shortly as pooling low level moisture leads to the development of widespread low level stratus in advance of drier air moving in behind a cold front. High confidence in MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings at all the TAF terminals early this morning, with cloudbases as low as 500-800 ft. As drier air moves in from the north, locations across the coastal plain could see low clouds scour out before sunrise (including KPGV and KISO), while areas closer to the coast (including KEWN and KOAJ) will likely see IFR conditions continuing through around 9-10 am. Continued influx of dry air today will allow for VFR conditions to return and continue through tonight. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 345 AM Sat...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast from Sun into early next week as high pressure settles into the area. Fog and low stratus are possible each night, although the likelihood is higher starting Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore and deeper moisture returns. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm threat returns for all terminals starting Tuesday, with best chances for coastal plain sites. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 230 AM Sat...Marginal Small Craft conditions will develop later this morning as NNE/NE flow increases behind a cold front. SCAs have been issued for the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras and the Pamlico Sound until this evening. Winds will be NE 10-20 kts early this morning, and then will increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts from mid morning through early this evening. Thereafter, winds will subside, and become mostly NNE 10-20 kts overnight. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through the period, but could reach 6 ft occasionally south of Cape Hatteras. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 320 AM Fri...No hazardous marine conditions are anticipated in the long term. High pressure remains over the waters on Sunday before quickly moving offshore on Monday, resulting in winds returning to a more typical south- to- southwesterly flow to start the work week. Northeasterly winds of 10-15 kt on Sunday return to a more typical southerly regime at 5-10 kt, with typical increases in late afternoons as thermal gradients increase. Seas gradually return to 2-4 feet through the rest of the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...SGK/MS MARINE...SGK/MS