FXUS62 KILM 270718
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
318 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Northeast winds will usher drier and drier air into the region
through Sunday. Light winds swing around to the south late
Monday bringing a gradual increase in humidity and rain chances
for most of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through Tonight: An unusual late July cold front is expected to move
south through the area later today and tonight as an upper trough
moves offshore allowing surface high pressure to build from the
north. Expect some showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder
prior to the frontal passage, with the best chance of rain near the
coast, especially in SC where the best moisture convergence will
hang on the longest. Temps should stay below normal with highs today
generally in the mid 80s and lows tonight mostly in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Some atypically low dewpoints in place on Sunday brought in on NE
winds caused by both high pressure building post-FROPA and
strengthening low off MidAtlantic Coast. Expect full sunshine and
seasonable temperatures but also a cooler "feel" on account of the
low dewpoints/RH values. As winds turn more southerly on Monday the
dewpoints will creep up but nowhere near the values experienced for
most of July.  Given the weakness of the return flow the shortwaves
traversing the area Monday will be hard-pressed to generate much in
the way of precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface and low level return flow strengthen just a bit on Tuesday
while the weak mid level trough overhead becomes slightly more vort-
laden in nature. There won't be any thermal advection to speak of
but as dewpoints rise the humidity will increase and nighttime lows
will have a higher ceiling. Shower and storm coverage will be on the
rise and there will only be a minor diurnal trend as at least
shallow convection should linger overnight due to continued PVA
aloft. Wednesday and Thursday will feature a large and amplifying
ridge over the Western U.S. while the eastern trough weakens. This
could cause a hard-to-time reversion of convection back to a diurnal
cycle as we lose most of our PVA. Offsetting this is a continued
moist advection into the Southeast leading to more instability and
lowered LCL heights. The end result will be a late period string of
seasonable temperatures and a pretty normal distribution of
thunderstorms that will favor the afternoon and evening hours as
normal for the time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Medium confidence through about 18Z and medium to high
confidence thereafter for the 06Z TAFs across SE NC and NE SC.
A cold front remains north of the area but should make some
progress southward into the area later today and especially
tonight bringing drier air to the area. Prior to the frontal
passage though there will be a risk for low clouds, fog and
showers overnight and then low clouds, showers and maybe a few
storms Saturday. Should see IFR ceilings prevail overnight with
improvement to MVFR after daybreak, likely becoming VFR from
north to south this afternoon. Thus, the SC terminals,
especially near the coast at KMYR, should see restrictions last
the longest.

Extended Outlook...VFR likely Sunday into Monday with a chance
for restrictions starting inland Monday afternoon due to showers
and possible storms. Better chance for restrictions from
showers/storms/low clouds starting Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...A rather unusual late July cold frontal passage is
expected later today and tonight. This will bring shifting winds to
the north which will increase into the afternoon, although likely
staying below Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt). Significant wave
heights should stay at or below 4 ft, a mix of northeasterly wind
waves and southeasterly swells which will make it a bit rough.

Sunday through Wednesday night... Sunday brings NE winds behind cold
frontal passage but veering may start as soon as Sunday night as the
post-frontal high weakens. The NE wind waves though small will still
be clashing a bit with SE swell for the occasional steep wave face.
A return of more typical southerly winds is slated for Monday though
just barely as speeds should be capped at 10 knots by such a weak
gradient as the west atlantic high doesn't seem to want to push
into the area much. This may hold true for the entire period
bringing quiet midweek marine conditions.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...ILM